اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات283
تعداد نشریات سازمان81
تعداد شماره‌ها2,729
تعداد مقالات31,081
تعداد مشاهده مقاله29,021,350
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله16,334,951
فریادرس, ولی الله, حسینی, سید صفدر, سلامی, حبیب اله, یزدانی, سعید. (1397). تحلیل آثار منطقه‌ای آزادسازی بازار گندم در ایران. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 26(3), 145-170. doi: 10.30490/aead.2018.81011
ولی الله فریادرس; سید صفدر حسینی; حبیب اله سلامی; سعید یزدانی. "تحلیل آثار منطقه‌ای آزادسازی بازار گندم در ایران". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 26, 3, 1397, 145-170. doi: 10.30490/aead.2018.81011
فریادرس, ولی الله, حسینی, سید صفدر, سلامی, حبیب اله, یزدانی, سعید. (1397). 'تحلیل آثار منطقه‌ای آزادسازی بازار گندم در ایران', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 26(3), pp. 145-170. doi: 10.30490/aead.2018.81011
فریادرس, ولی الله, حسینی, سید صفدر, سلامی, حبیب اله, یزدانی, سعید. تحلیل آثار منطقه‌ای آزادسازی بازار گندم در ایران. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1397; 26(3): 145-170. doi: 10.30490/aead.2018.81011

تحلیل آثار منطقه‌ای آزادسازی بازار گندم در ایران

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
مقاله 6، دوره 26، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 103، آذر 1397، صفحه 145-170    اصل مقاله (263.87 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2018.81011
نویسندگان
ولی الله فریادرس* 1؛ سید صفدر حسینی2؛ حبیب اله سلامی2؛ سعید یزدانی2
1PhD in Agricultural Economics and General Director of Commerce Standards Bureau, Trade and Agricultural Industries Deputy, Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad,
2استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
سیاست‌گذار به پیامدهای تغییر سیاست در بازار گندم بر امنیت غذایی و معیشتی جامعه حساس است. بازار گندم تحت تأثیر سیاست خرید تضمینی، سیاست غذای ارزان (یارانه مصرف‌کننده) و موانع غیرتعرفه‌ای (واردات دولتی) است. ایرادهای سیاست خرید تضمینی (ناکارایی تخصیص منابع، انحراف بازار و افزایش ضایعات ) به طور عام و فشار هزینه اجرای آن به طور خاص تمایل به تغییر سیاست‌های اجرایی در بازار گندم را افزایش داده است. در این مطالعه، آثار تغییر سیاست‌ها در بازار گندم برای 4 راه‌گزین منتخب  بررسی و تحلیل شده است. پژوهش با الگوی برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت منطقه‌ای و داده‌های سال زراعی 93-1392 برای 8 پهنه زراعی – اکولوژیک انجام شده است. یافته‌های مطالعه نشان دهنده اهمیت سیاست تجاری مکمل برای بازار گندم است. اجرای راه‌گزین حذف یارانه مصرف‌کننده و آزادسازی تجاری در حضور سیاست خرید تضمینی آثار منفی کمتری ایجاد می‌کند، اما احتمال فروش گندم وارداتی به دولت را افزایش می‌دهد. حذف سیاست خرید تضمینی بدون آزادسازی تجاری، زیان رفاهی برای تولیدکننده و مصرف‌کننده ایجاد می‌کند. آزادسازی کامل بازار گندم و پرداخت مستقیم به هر دو گروه باعث کاهش هزینه دولت، مقدار مصرف و ضایعات گندم می‌شود، اما برای جلوگیری از کاهش زیاد قیمت‌های داخلی و افزایش هزینه بودجه‌ای دولت باید با سطح مشخصی از حمایت تجاری اجرایی شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
بازار گندم؛ خرید تضمینی؛ سیاست غذای ارزان؛ سیاست تجاری؛ آزادسازی
عنوان مقاله [English]
Analysis of Regional Effects of Wheat Market Liberalization in Iran
نویسندگان [English]
Valiolah Faryadras1؛ S.S. Hosseini2؛ H. Salami2؛ S. Yazdani2
1PhD in Agricultural Economics and General Director of Commerce Standards Bureau, Trade and Agricultural Industries Deputy, Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad,
2Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economic, Faculty of Agricultural Economic and Development, Collage of Agricultural & Natural Resources, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]
The policymaker is sensitive to the consequences of the policy change in the wheat market on food security and livelihood of the community. Wheat market is covered by a guaranteed purchasing policy, cheap food policy (consumer subsidy), and non-tariff barriers (imports by government). Guaranteed purchase policy issues (the inefficiency of resource allocation, market diversion and increased waste) in general and the cost of its implementation have increased the tendency to change the executive policy in the wheat market.  In this study, the effects of changing the policies in the wheat market for the four selected alternatives were been analyzed. The research was carried out using a positive regional mathematical programming model and data for the 2013-2014 crop year for 8 agro-ecological zones. The findings of the study indicate the importance of complementary trade policy for wheat markets. Implementing the scenario to eliminating consumer subsidies and commercial liberalization in the presence of a guaranteed purchasing policy will have less negative effects, but will increase the likelihood of the sale of imported wheat to the government. The removal of guaranteed purchasing policy without trade liberalization creates welfare losses for both the producer and the consumer. Full liberalization of the wheat market and direct payments to both groups will reduce government costs, consumption and wheat waste, but in order to prevent a significant drop in domestic prices and rising government spending costs, it should implement with a certain level of commercial support.
مراجع
1.    Bakhshi M.R. and Paykani, G. R. (2011). Simulation of support policy direct payments in the crop sub-section (application of the positive planning approach and maximum entropy approach). Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 42-2(4): 501-511. (Persian)
  1. Bakhshi, M.R., Paykani, G. R., Hosseini, S.S. and Saleh, I. (2010). Investigating the effects of removing subsidies on chemical fertilizers and applying direct payment policies on the pattern of pruduction and consumption of inputs; case study:  Sabzevar crop subsector. Agricultural Economics, 4(2):185-207. (Persian)
  2. Bauer, S. and Kasnakoglu, H. (1990). Non-linear programming models for sector and policy analysis. Experiences with the Turkish agricultural sector model. Economic Modelling, 7(4): 275-290.
  3. Bauman, A. (2013). Estimating the economic and social impacts from the drought in Southern Colorado. Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education,151(1):  61–69.
  4. Demeke, M. A. , Spinelli, S. and Pernechele,  C. V. (2014). Food and agriculture policy decisions trends. Emerging Issues and Policy Alignments Since the 2007/08 Food Security Crisis, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome. 
  5. Fathelrahman, E. (2014). Assessing climate change impacts on water resources and Colorado agriculture using an equilibrium displacement mathematical programming model. Water, 6: 1745-1770.
  6. Harrington, D. H. and Dubman, R. (2008). Equilibrium displacement mathematical programming models. USDA, Technical Bulletin Number 1918.
  7. Heckelei, T. and Britz, W. (2001). Concept and explorative application of an EU-wide. Regional Agricultural Sector Model (CAPRI-Project). Available at http://www.agp.uni-bonn.de/agpo/rsrch/capri/capri_e.htm.
  8. Horner, G. L., Cormann, J., Howitt,  R. E., Carter, C. A. and MacGregor, R. J.  (1992). The Canadian regional agricultural model, Structure, Operation and Development. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Available at http://econpapers. repec. org.
  9. Jefferson-Moore, K.Y. and Harrington, D.H.  (2006). The distribution of rents in supply chain industries: the case of high oil corn. Paper Delivered at the 2006 Conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, Brisbane, Australia, (August).
  10. Wiborg, T. (1998). KRAM—a sector model of Danish agriculture: background and framework development. Available at www.card.iastate.edu.
6.    Dorandish, A., Hosseini, S. S. and Nikokar, A. (2010). The welfare effects of agricultural policies in the wheat and bread market. Journal of Social Welfare Research,10(38): 367-387. (Persian)
7.    Fallahi, F. (2013). Investigating the welfare effects of increasing the price of consumer goods in urban households of Iran. Journal of Economic Research, Vol. 48, No. 2: 150-150. (Persian)
8.    Faryadras, V. A. (2016). The analysis of cost and welfare policies of purchasing policy and the guaranteed price and the proposal of an alternative policy instrument  for wheat, maize and barley. The Islamic Consultative Assembly Research Center, Were not published, and Only for Informing Delegates.
10.                                            Forghani, F., Bostani, F. and  Soltani, G. (2009). Effect of irrigation water reduction and water price rising on crop pattern using positive math programming: a case study of Eghlid county in Fars province. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, (1) 1: 74-57. (Persian)
11.                                    Ghahremanzadeh, M., Ansari, F., Falsafian, A. and Ferdowsi, R. (2013). Measuring the welfare effects of rising prices of meatball for urban households of Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 44(2):201-209. (Persian)
15.                                                                                           Hosseini, S. S. and Torshizi, M. (2009). Evaluation of state support policy in Iran's wheat market. Agricultural Economic, No. 4: 95-120. (Persian)
17.                                                                                            Karamatzadeh, A., Chizari, A. H. and Sharzie, G. (2011). The role of water market in determining economic value of agricultural water using positive math programming (PMP) approach. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, (1) 2-42: 29-44. (Persian)
18.                                                                                            Karbasi, A. R. and Kateb, M. (2011). Examining the welfare effects of removing fertilizer subsidies on wheat and barley. Agricultural Economics, 5(2):58-72. (Persian)
19.                                                                                            Khosravi Nejad, A. A. (2009). Measuring the welfare effects of eliminating the subsidies for basic goods of Iranian urban households. Journal of Trade Researches, No. 50: 1-31. (Persian)
20.                                                                                           Khosravi Nejad, A. A., Khodadad Kashi, F. and Sohbati, Z. (2013). Evaluation of food price rising on urban households welfare. Journal of Economic Strategy, Second Year, No. 4: 93-73. (Persian)
21.                                                                                           Mahjori, K., Mohammad Rezaee, R., Haghighat, J. and Ghahremanzadeh, M. (2010). Presenting different programs in implementation of wheat price support policy: a case study of Mazandaran Province. Quarterly Journal of Research and Supportive Policies, No. 56: 161-135. (Persian)
22.                                                                                           Mirzaei, H. and Khosrovi Nejad, A. A. (2011). The effect of price adjustment on basic goods: bread, rice, vegetable oil and sugar on the welfare of urban and rural households. Journal of Trade Researches, No.6:35-65. (Persian)
23.                                                                                           Mousavi, S. N. and Bagheri, M. (2016). The welfare effects of reforming the subsidies system on the wheat market, Flour and Bread in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 24(94):245-271. (Persian)
24.                                                                                           Mousavi, S. N. and Ghorghani, F. (2011). Evaluation of agricultural water plicies from groundwater resources, math programming (PMP) case study of Eghlid County. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, (4) 11: 65-82. (Persian)
25.                                                                                           Najafi, B. and Farajzadeh, Z. (2010). Evaluating the welfare effects of reducing fertilizer subsidies in the wheat and rice market. Agricultural Economics and Development, 18(72):1-24. (Persian)
26.                                                                                           Nazari, M. R. (2012). Study of the economic effects of climate change on Iran's agricultural sub-sector. Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran.
27.                                                                                           Nikoee, A. and Najafi, B. (2011). The welfare effects of establishing agricultural water market in Iran case study of Isfahan irrigation networks. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 76: 1-31. (Persian)
28.                                                                                           Nikokar, A., Hosseini, S. S. and Durandish, A. (2010). The study of the effects of the optimal combination of policy instruments  on bread consumers in different income groups. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development (Food Science and Technology) Volume 24: 456-470. (Persian)
29.                                                                                           Sabouhi, M., Soltani, G. R. and Zibaee, M. (2007). Investigating the effect of changing the price of irrigation water on private and social benefits using a positive mathematical programming model. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, (1) 21: 53-71.
30.                                                                                           Samareh Hashmi, F. (2012). Investigating the effect of reduction of water reserves on cropping pattern in Kerman province. Master's Degree, Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran.
31.                                                                                           Shoshtarian, A. and Bakhshodeh, M. (2007). The effect of Iranian wheat market liberalization on social welfare. Scientific Journal of Agriculture, 30(1): 1-13. (Persian)
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 445
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 258


counter
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب