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معرفی و تحلیل کلان روندهای مؤثر در آب، خاک و کشاورزی در جهان و ایران تا سال 2050 | ||
| تحقیقات مهندسی سازه های آبیاری و زهکشی | ||
| دوره 24، شماره 93، تیر 1403، صفحه 118-101 اصل مقاله (1.85 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: یادداشت فنی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/idser.2024.365754.1581 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علیرضا اسمعیلی فلک1؛ فریبرز عباسی* 2 | ||
| 1کارشناس ارشد کشاورزی (علوم باغبانی) و مسئول امور بین‌الملل معاونت آب و خاک، وزارت جهاد کشاورزی | ||
| 2استاد، موسسه تحقیقات فنی و مهندسی کشاورزی، سازمان تحقیقات آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، کرج، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| جهان امروز واجد مشخصه‌های متفاوتی با گذشته است و صفاتی از جمله پیچیدگیها، عدم قطعیتها، میزان تغییرات شدید، انعطاف‌پذیری کم و اثرهای متقابل باعث سردرگمی در تصمیم‌گیری‌ها و برنامه‌ریزی‌ها شده است. بخش کشاورزی نیز بعنوان تولید کنندۀ عمده غذا از این قاعده مستثنی نیست و انتظار می رود تشدید عواملی مانند تغییرات اقلیمی، رقابت بر سر منابع تولید بخش کشاورزی (به خصوص آب و خاک)، تغییرات جمعیت، مهاجرت، فناوری‌ها و اقتصاد تا سال 2050، امنیت غذایی جمعیت 9/7 میلیارد نفری جهان را با چالش‌های جدی‌تری مواجه کند. به منظور شناخت و مدیریت بهتر این شرایط، استفاده از ابزار و روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی مبتنی بر بررسی کلان روندها به شدت در دهه‌های اخیر مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. از آنجایی‌که ایران نیز در زمره کشورهای آسیب‌پذیر از تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی و نیز دیگر عوامل محدود کنندۀ بخش کشاورزی قرار دارد، زمینه‌سازی و ترغیب متخصصان دیگر زیربخش‌های کشاورزی برای آشنایی بیشتر با ابعاد آینده‌پژوهی و تلفیق آن با نیازهای آیندۀ بخش مورد تاکید خواهد بود. به همین منظور در مطالعۀ حاضر شش مورد از کلان‌روندهای جهانی مرتبط با آب، خاک و کشاورزی تا سال 2050 میلادی معرفی گردیده و ضمن بررسی و تجزیه و تحلیل پیش‌بینی روندها، جایگاه جمهوری اسلامی ایران نیز نسبت به جهان و دیگر کشورها مقایسه شده است. سرانجام با هدف احصاء راهکارهای آینده‌پژوهانه تغییرات اقلیمی، پیشنهاد شده است با همگرایی و تعامل سازنده، تدوین سند جامع ملی با رویکرد افزایش تاب‌آوری و سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم و کاهش منابع آب، به عنوان اولویت مهم مطرح و حمایت شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| کلان‌روند؛ امنیت غذایی؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ منابع تولید | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Introduction and Analysis of Effective Megatrends in Water, Soil and Agriculture in the World and Iran Until 2050 | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Alireza Esmaili Falak1؛ Fariborz Abbasi2 | ||
| 1Senior Expert Agriculture (Horticultural Science), Head of International Affair, Deputy of Water and Soil, Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad. | ||
| 2Professor Agricultural Engineering Research Institute, AREEO, Karaj, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Abstract Nowadays, the world has different features than in the past, including intense and competitive changes, low adaptability, complexities, and uncertainties. The agricultural sector, as a major food producer worldwide, is not exempt from these traits, and, according to scientific reports and predictions, these changes are expected to become more prominent and challenging by 2050. Climate change and limitations of agricultural production resources (especially water and soil), along with other issues such as population growth and aging, urbanization and decreased willingness to work in the agricultural sector, economic issues and changing in supply and demand patterns, have led to food security in human societies with new and even turbulent conditions. In order to manage and overcome this challenge, Future Studies tools based on Megatrends review has been noticed in recent decades in different countries and international communities. Since Iran is also among the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and is more or less affected by other factors limiting the agricultural sector, this article examined six of the most effective global megatrends related to water, soil and agriculture by 2050, and compared the position of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards the world and other countries. Finally, with the aim of enumerating the future-oriented solutions of climate change, it was suggested that, through convergence and constructive interaction, the development of a comprehensive national plan should be proposed and supported as an important priority, in accordance with the approach of increasing resilience and adaptation to climate change and water resources reduction. Introduction Food security is one of the main pillars of the sustainable development of countries, and dealing with the threats of food insecurity should be considered as one of the major goals of the development plans of all countries. According to the concerns that exist in this field, governments try to use the results of future studies to obtain information so that they can become an active element (instead of an observer), and interact with the future as a decision-maker to be able to take action some preventive measures. The most important "Megatrends" that are directly and indirectly involved in the food and agriculture sector, include demographic changes, economic changes, urbanization and migration, technological changes, climate changes and competition for production resources. In order to study 6 major megatrends and compare statistics and information related to the past, present and future, many articles, official reports, annual statistics and the results of documented forecasts were used. The world population will reach about 9.7 billion people in 2050, and about 97% of this growth will be in developing countries. The world's working population in the agricultural sector has decreased from 40% in 2000 to 27% in 2022. By 2050, about 82% of Iran's population will live in cities. Significant economic changes will take place in the world by 2050 in terms of per capita income and GDP. Global warming and climate change will have a significant impact on agricultural processes, such as reducing water resources, water and soil salinity, reducing crop yields, floods and droughts events, etc. In terms of access to water and soil resources for food production, restrictions with different degrees and intensities are seen almost all over the world. Therefore, this article attempts to provide a general description of the situation and challenges by 2050, through collecting, analyzing and comparing information and data related to effective global megatrends in the water, soil and agriculture sector of Iran and the world. However, we believe that the researchers should be more involved in future studies concepts because it is necessary to clarify more details of water and soil issues and their integration with other agricultural areas in the future to provide the basis of national sustainable development approaches. In this technical note, in order to at describing and forecasting the effective factors in the water, soil, and agriculture sectors until 2050, six majors global Megatrends have been identified. In each of these Megatrends, the status, potential challenges, and Iran's position in the world have been compared and evaluated based on statistics and information from scientific sources and official international reports, including FAO, World Bank, and IMF. Finally, considering the experiences, predicted results in the examined trends, and discussions held with experts, suggestions and solutions aligned with the country's conditions have been presented. Results and Discussion Review of the effective trends in the water, soil, and agriculture sectors, as well as the predicted outcomes related to each of the major global trends, particularly "climate change" and "competition over production resources," clearly indicates that the challenges facing agricultural production and food security in societies are emerging and intensifying in many parts of the world, including Iran. In addition to the direct impact of each of the studied trends on the quality and quantity of water and soil resources, the indirect effects, especially the interrelated impacts of these factors, are also crucial and could be noted as in future relevant research. While it is expected that some of these deficiencies may be addressed through new technologies and unforeseen developments, planning and action within the frameworks of "mitigation" and "adaptation" are undoubtedly indispensable. In this regard, some countries, with a proper understanding of the conditions and precise policymaking, have formulated strategic plans and roadmaps aligned with the mentioned principles, and have achieved successes accordingly. In Iran, although a brief reference to climate change issue in the Seventh Development Plan, considering the over 93% dependency of agricultural production on water, as well as other serious threats in terms of soil salinity and erosion, it is essential to develop a national strategic document to address climate change, consisting of probable scenarios and national priorities. Furthermore, since the supply of 80% of the world's surplus food until 2050 depends on the increase in yield and productivity, it is necessary for these aforementioned strategies to receive more attention in the country's food security policies. In this regard, improving irrigation efficiency and developing modern irrigation methods are highlighted as crucial and fundamental approaches in enhancing climate change resilience and sustainable development of water and soil resources. Fortunately, the technical capacity and the ability of implementing modern irrigation projects in Iran are up to 250 thousand hectares per year, and therefore it is suggested that planning and more support for the conversion of remaining irrigated lands (about 5/5 million ha) should be paid attention to by policymakers, because by completing this project, it would be possible to save more than 5 billion cubic meters of water per year. Noteworthy is the anticipated urban population growth in Iran (up to 82% by 2050) and also to enhance productivity and ensure investments, it is advisable for government support in the development of modern irrigation systems and other water and soil infrastructure to be directed towards large-scale agricultural projects in agricultural hubs. It is crucial to emphasize that maximizing the use of international capacities and opportunities is undoubtedly a prerequisite for success in each of the projects and programs, and in this regard, based on past experiences and achievements, it is recommended to expand technical cooperation with relevant organizations such as FAO and global projects like GSP (Global Soil Partnership), WaPor (FAO Water Productivity Open-access portal), AQUASTAT (FAO's Global Information System on Water and Agriculture), AQUA CROP (Crop-water productivity model), etc. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Megatrend, Food Security, Climate change, Production resources | ||
| مراجع | ||
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