| تعداد نشریات | 283 |
| تعداد نشریات سازمان | 81 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 2,766 |
| تعداد مقالات | 31,497 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 39,698,934 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 17,254,039 |
بررسی تغییرات کاربری زمین و شاخص‌های حدی هوا-آبشناسی در آبخیز رود میناب | ||
| پژوهش های آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 37، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 143، تیر 1403، صفحه 74-92 اصل مقاله (2.76 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/wmrj.2023.362493.1543 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مریم عباس زاده1؛ ام البنین بذرافشان* 2 | ||
| 1دانش آموخته دکتری گروه مهندسی منابع‌طبیعی، دانشکده علوم کشاورزی و منابع‌طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران | ||
| 2استاد گروه مهندسی منابع‌طبیعی، دانشکده‌ی علوم کشاورزی و منابع‌طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| مقدمه و هدف در سه دهه‌ی اخیر کاربری زمین در آبخیز رود میناب تغییرات محسوسی داشته است و این تغییرات به‌همراه تغییر اقلیم در آبخیز می تواند روی روند شاخص‌های هوا-آبشناسی تأثیرگذار باشد. از این رو، به‌دلیل تغییرات اقلیم و کاربری زمین‌های آبخیز رود میناب در دهه های گذشته تاکنون، بررسی روندها و تغییرات در شاخص های حدی بارش، دما و آب‌دهی جریان اهمیت ویژه ای دارد. بنابراین، این پژوهش با هدف بررسی روند تغییرات کاربری زمین و متغیرهای هوا-آب شناسی در آبخیز مزبور انجام شد. مواد و روش‌ها در این پژوهش، اطلاعات ایستگاه های آب‌‌سنجی، باران‌سنجی و تبخیرسنجی آبخیز میناب برای تعیین شاخص های حدی بر اساس استاندارد ETCCDI شامل بارش، دما و جریان رود بررسی شد. برای تحلیل روند از آزمون غیرسنجه‌ای (ناپارامتریک) من‌کندال استفاده شد. همچنین تغییرات کاربری زمین با استفاده از تصویرهای ماهواره‌ی لندست سری TM در سال‌های 1368، 1383 و 1399 به‌ترتیب از سنجنده های TM، ETM+ و OLI تعیین شد و صحت تصویرهای به‌دست آمده با آمار‌ه‌ی کاپا تأیید شد. نتایج و بحث نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد، روند تمام شاخص‌های حدی دمایی شامل شب‌های حاره‌ای، روزهای گرم، شب‌های گرم و دامنه‌ی دمای شبانه‌روزی افزایشی بود. در برخی ایستگاه‌ها، روند شاخص‌های حدی بارش، بارش سنگین (10، 20 و 30 میلی‌متر) روند افزایشی بود، اما روند بارش میانگین سالانه، افزایشی بود. روند تعداد روزهای تر (روزهای بارانی) و روزهای خشک (خشکسالی) به‌ترتیب کاهشی و افزایشی بود. بررسی تغییرات وضعیت بارش منطقه نشان داد، شدت بارش در زمان تداوم‌های 15 و 45 دقیقه‌ای افزایش یافت. با توجه به تغییرات رخ داده، تغییر وضعیت بارش در منطقه حتمی است. بررسی تغییرات کاربری زمین در سه دهه‌ی گذشته نشان داد، 11% از سطح زمین‌های مرتعی کاهش‌یافته است و زمین‌های کشاورزی و مسکونی به‌ترتیب 220 و 280% افزایش داشته‌اند. نتیجه‌گیری و پیشنهادها یافته های این پژوهش نشان داد به رغم افزایش میانگین سالانه‌ی باران (16میلی‌متر در سال)، و دیگر شاخص های بارش که فاقد روند معنی دار بودند، روند شدت بارش 15 و 45 دقیقه ای افزایشی و معنی دار بود. برخلاف روند بارش که نمی‌توان آن را با اطمینان زیاد اثبات کرد، روند افزایشی همه شاخص های دمایی (به‌طور میانگین °0/9C در سال)، تغییرات اقلیمی در آبخیز میناب را تأیید کرد. از طرف دیگر، روند شاخص های جریان کمینه و بیشینه و بیشینه‌ی لحظه ای نیز در آبخیز افزایشی بود و می‌تواند یکی از دلیل‌های آن تغییرات وضعیت بارش، احداث سد و تغییرات کاربری از زمین‌های مرتعی و جنگی به کشاورزی و مسکونی باشد. بر پایه‌ی نتایج این پژوهش پیشنهاد می‌شود، اثر تغییرات آینده‌ی اقلیم بر متغیرهای هوا-آب شناسی بررسی و یافته‌های آن در مدیریت منابع‌طبیعی به‌کار گرفته شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| آزمون من-کندال؛ بارش های حدی؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ شاخص های جریان رود | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigating Changes of Land Use and Hydroclimatic Extreme Indices in Minab River Basin | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Maryam Abbaszadeh1؛ Ommolbanin Bazrafshan2 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Graduated, Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran | ||
| 2Professor, Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction and Goal In the last three decades, land use in the Minab river basin has undergone significant changes and these changes along with climate change in the basin can affect the trend of hydroclimatic variables. Due to the changes that have occurred in the climate and land use of the Minab River Basin in the past decades until now, the investigation of trends and changes in the threshold indicators of precipitation, temperature and flow rate becomes particularly important. Therefore, the aim of the current research is to investigate the trend of land use changes and hydroclimatic variables in the Minab basin. Materials and Methods In the current research, the data of hydrometric, rain gauge and evapotranspiration stations in the Minab watershed were analyzed to extract threshold indices based on the ETCCDI standard including precipitation, temperature and river flow. Trend analysis was done using a non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Also, land use changes were extracted using TM series Landsat satellite images in 1989, 2004, and 2020 from TM, ETM+, and OLI sensors, respectively, and the accuracy of the extracted images was confirmed with Kappa statistics. Results and Discussion The finding showed that all the temperature limit indices, including tropical nights, hot days, hot nights and the range of day and night temperature, have an increasing trend. The extreme precipitation indices, heavy precipitation of 10, 20, and 30 mm in some stations has an increasing trend, but the annual average precipitation has an increasing trend. The number of wet days is decreasing and the number of dry days is increasing. The investigation of the changes in the rainfall regime of the region showed that the intensity of the rainfall is increasing in the duration of 15 and 45 minutes. According to the changes that have occurred, the change in the precipitation situation in the region is inevitable. The survey of land use changes over the past three decades showed that 22% of the pasture land area has decreased, and residential and agricultural land has increased by 280 and 220%, respectively. Conclusion and Suggestion The findings of this research showed that despite the increase in the average annual rainfall (16 mm per year), and other rainfall indicators that had no significant trend, the trend of 15 and 45 minute rainfall intensity was increasing and significant. Contrary to the trend of precipitation, which cannot be proven with great certainty, the increasing trend of all temperature indices (on average 0.9°C per year) confirmed the climatic changes in the Minab watershed. On the other hand, the trend of minimum and maximum stream flow and maximum discharge was also increasing in the watershed, and it can be one of the reasons for the changes in rainfall, construction of dams, and changes in land use from pasture and war lands to agriculture and residential. Based on the results of this research, it is suggested to investigate the effect of future climate changes on meteorological and hydrological variables and use its findings in natural resources management. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Climate changes, Mann-Kendall test, precipitation extreme, stream flow indicators | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Alavinia S, Zarei M. 2022. Climate change trends analysis using by extreme indices of long-term rainfall and temperature in South East of Iran. Journal of Rgional Planning, 11(44), 119-134. (In Persian). Alizadeh A, Sayari N, Hesami Kermani M, Banayan Aval M, Hoseini A. 2010. Investigating the potential effects of climate change on agricultural water sources and uses (Case study: Kashf Roud River Catchment) Journal of Water and Soil, 24(4), 835-815. (In Persian). Ansari M, Noori GH, Fotoohi S. 2017. Investigation of temperature precipitation and flow trend using nonparametric mankendall (Case study: Kaju River in Sistan and Baluchestan). Journal of Watershed Management Research, 7(14), 158-152. (In Persian). Aras E. (2018). Effects of multiple dam projects on river ecology and climate change: Çoruh River Basin, Turkey. Advances in Environmental Research, 7(2):121-138. Azimi Sardari M, Bazrafshan O, Panagopolus T, Rafiee Sardoee E. 2020. Land use change modeling using artificial neural network and markov chain (Case study: Minab Esteqlal Dam Basin). Journal of Natural Environment, 73(1), 103-114. (In Persian). Azizi GH, Shamsipour A, Yarahmadi D. 2009. Detection climate change using multivariable statistical analysis in west of Iran. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 66(40), 19-36. (In Persian). Bai J, Cui Q, Zhang W, Meng L. 2019. An Approach for downscaling SMAP soil moisture by combining sentinel-1 SAR and MODIS data. Remote Sensing, 11(23)1–20. Bahari Meimandi J, Bazrafshan O, Esmaelpour Y, Shekari M, Zamani H. 2023. Study the effect of natural and anthropogenic factors on the ground water falling in The Minab Plain. Desert Management, 11(1):1-18. Barkhordary J, Khosroshahi M. 2008. Investigation of effects of land cover and climate change on river flow (Case study: Minab Basin). Pajouhesh and Sazandegi, 77(2), 191-199. (In Persian). Belvasi I, Saraskanrod S, Esfandiari Dorabad F, Zeinali B. 2020. The role of land use changes on run-off and flood properties in the Doab Catchment. Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology, 7(2), 331-344. (In Persian). Borna R, Jahan A. 2015. Trend analysis of extreme climate changes index’s in precipitation and temperature in Bushehr Province. Natural Geography Journal, 8(28), 43-64. (In Persian). Cao C, Guan X, Sun W, Guo S, Chen B. 2023. Changes of extreme high temperature by global warming in the northern hemisphere. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 62(1):21-29. Chen Q, Chen H Zhang J, Hou Y, Shen M, Chen J, Xu C. 2020. Impacts of climate change and LULC change on runoff in the Jinsha River Basin. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 30(1):85-102. Congalton RG. 1991. A review of assessing the accuracy of classifications of remotely sensed data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 37:35-46. Cui T, Tian F, Yang T, Wen J, Khan MYA. 2020. Development of a comprehensive framework for assessing the impacts of climate change and dam construction on flow regimes. Journal of Hydrology, 590(12):53-68 Dalcin AP, Brêda JPLF, Marques GF, Tilmant A, de Paiva RCD, Kubota PY. 2023. The role of reservoir reoperation to mitigate climate change impacts on hydropower and environmental water demands. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 149(4): 1495–1516. Das P, Zhang Z, Ghosh S, Lu J, Ayugi B, Ojara MA, Guo X. 2023. Historical and projected changes in extreme high temperature events over East Africa and associated with meteorological conditions using CMIP6 models. Global and Planetary Change, 222(3):105-121. Gallardo V, Sánchez-Gómez E, Riber E, Boé J, Terray L. 2023. Evolution of high-temperature extremes over the main Euro-Mediterranean airports. Climate Dynamics. 3(4):1717-1744. Ghasemi Karakani E, Fattahi E, Salehi Pak L, Ghaemi H. 2023. Simulation of rainfall temporal distribution pattern using WRF Model (Case study of Parsian Dam Basin). Journal of Applied Researches in Geographical Sciences, 23(69):259-275. (In Persian). Ghosh K, Muñoz-Arriola F. 2023. Hysteresis and streamflow-sediment relations across the pre-to-post dam construction continuum in a highly regulated transboundary Himalayan River Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 624(12):85-98. Gupta A, Kamble T, Machiwal D. 2017. Comparison of ordinary and Bayesian kriging techniques in depicting rainfall variability in arid and semi-arid regions of north-west India. Environmental Earth Sciences, 76(2):1-16. Halabian A, Keikhosravi Kiany M. 2020. Evaluation of variations in extreme precipitation indices in Iran. Spatial Planning, 10(4),24-45. (In Persian). Hayhoe SJ, Neill C, Porder S et al. 2011. Conversion to soy on the Amazonian agricultural frontier increases streamflow without affecting stormflow dynamics. Glob Change Biol, 17(2):1821–1833. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02392.x
Hoseini Y, Ramezani Moghaddam J, Abdolalizadeh Z. 2020. Evaluating the impact of land use changes on flooding and flood runoff in Amuqin Drainage Basin. Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards, 8(22), 145-163. (In Persian). Hossain F. 2010. Empirical relationship between large dams and the alteration in extreme precipitation. Natural Hazards Review, 11(3):97-101. Huang XR, Gao LY, Yang PP, Xi YY. 2018. Cumulative impact of dam constructions on streamflow and sediment regime in lower reaches of the Jinsha River, China. Journal of Mountain Science, 15(12):2752-2765. Hu WW, Wang GX, Deng W, Li SN. 2008. An influence of dams on ecohydrological conditions in the Huaihe River Basin, China. Ecological Engineering, 33(3-4):233-241. IPCC. 2013: Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker Qin T.F. D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen S.K, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V and Midgley P.M (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 942-987. Irannejad P, Katiraei Boroujerdi P, Hajjam S. 2010. Spatial distribution of the annual precipitation trend in Iran in the period 1960-2001. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 33(1), 67-83. (In Persian). Javaheri S, Torahi A, Tavakoli sabour S. 2020. Ability to prepare methods land use maps using satellite images (Case study: Kamyaran City). Journal of GIS and RS Application in Planning, 10(4), 90-106. (In Persian). Kendall MG. 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. Griffin. 4th Edition. London, pp. 110-142. Khorshiddoust A, Rasouli A, Zangeneh S. 2018. Modeling of trends of temperature and precipitation extreme indices in Urmia Lake Basin. Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards, 7(16), 175-194. (In Persian). Kumar A, Tripathi VK, Kumar P, Rakshit A. 2023. Assessment of hydrologic impact on flow regime due to dam inception using IHA framework. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(13):37821-37844. Mann HB.1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13(1): 245-249.https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187 Meresa HK, Romanowicz RJ, Napiorkowski JJ. 2017. Understanding changes and trends in projected hydroclimatic indices in selected Norwegian and Polish catchments, Acta Geophys. 65(2):829–848. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-017-0062-5 Mahmoud MT, Mohammed SA, Hamouda MA, Mohamed MM. 2020. Impact of topography and rainfall intensity on the accuracy of imerg precipitation estimates in an arid region. Remote Sensing, 13(1):13-29. Mohammadi H, Azizi GH, Khoshahklagh F, Ranjbar F. 2017. Analysis of Daily Precipitation Extreme Indices Trend in Iran. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 49(1), 21-37. (In Persian). Mohammadi A, Musivand A, Shayan S. 2010. Prediction of land use and land cover changes using satellite images and Markov Chain model. Human Sciences MODARES, 14(3):117-130. (In Persian). Mohammadi M. 2016. Modeling the effects of land use changes on flood hydrograph (A case study: Ja’farabad Basin, Golestan Province). Water and Soil Conservation, 22(5), 171-185. (In Persian). Moradi M, Bazrafshan O, Bahreman A, Esmaelpour Y. 2018. Assessment of the relations between the trends of climatic factors and river flow in southern Coastal Basins, Iran. Basin Management Research Journal, 31(2):79-92. Naderi M, Vahedberdi SH, Bahrehmand A, Bayram Komaki CH. 2023. Analysis of river flow regime changes using the indicators of hydrologic alteration (Case study: Hableroud basin). Water and soil management and modelling, 3(3), 1-19. (In Persian). Nassaji Zavareh M, Ghermezcheshmeh B. 2023. Assessment of spatial and temporal variability of extreme temperature by ETCCDI Indices (North and West of Iran). Environment and Water Engineering, 9(1):95-108. Oliveira WL, Medeiros MB, Moser P, Simon MF. 2021. Mega-dams and extreme rainfall: Disentangling the drivers of extensive impacts of a large flooding event on Amazon Forests. Plos one, 16(2):24-59. Pabaghi Z, Bazrafshan O, Zamani H, Shekari M, Singh VP. 2023. Bivariate analysis of extreme precipitation using copula functions in arid and semi-arid regions. Atmosphere, 14(2):275-288. Peel MC, McMahon TA. 2006. Continental runoff: A quality controlled global runoff data set. Nature 444(E14): 835–838. doi:10.1038/ nature05480 Qi P, Xu YJ, Wang G. 2020. Quantifying the individual contributions of climate change, dam construction, and land use/land cover change to hydrological drought in a marshy river. Sustainability, 12(9):37-45. Rezaei M, Yasi M, Farhoudi J. 2023. Investigating the impact of dam construction on the eco-hydrological parameters of rivers (Jajrud River - downstream of Latian Dam). Ecohydrology, 9(4), 797-814. (In Persian). Shams Ghahfarokhi M, Moradian S. 2023. Investigating the causes of Lake Urmia shrinkage: climate change or anthropogenic factors?. Journal of Arid Land, 15(4):424-438. Sharma PJ, Patel PL, Jothiprakash V. 2019. Impact of rainfall variability and anthropogenic activities on streamflow changes and water stress conditions across Tapi Basin in India. Science of total environment. 687(3):885-897. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.097 Soro GE, Noufe D, Goula BTA, Srohourou B. 2016. Trend analysis for extreme rainfall at sub-daily and daily time scales in Côte d’Ivoire. Climate, 4(3): 37-49. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4030037 Tirupathi C, Shashidhar T. 2020. Investigating the impact of climate and land-use land cover changes on hydrological predictions over the Krishna River Basin under present and future scenarios, Science of the Total Environment, 721(13):36-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137736. Turgay P, Ercan K. 2006. Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Process, 20(2):2011–2026. Varshavian V, Khalili A, Ghahreman N, Hajjam S. 2011. Trend analysis of minimum, maximum, and mean daily temperature extremes in several climatic regions of Iran. Journal of the Earth and Space Pyisics, 37(1), 169-179. (In Persian). Wagner PD, Kumar S, Schneider K. 2013. An assessment of land use change impacts on the water resources of the Mula and Mutha Rivers catchment upstream of Pune, India. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(6): 2233-2246. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2233-2013 Wilson D, Hisdal H, Lawrence D. 2010. Has streamflow changed in the Nordic countries? Recent trends and comparisons to hydrological projections. Journal of Hydrology, 394: 334–346. Wright JS, Fu R, Worden JR, et al. 2017. Rainforest-initiated wet season onset over the southern Amazon. Environmental Sciences 114(3):81-84. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1621516114
Yari M, Soltani-Gerdefaramarzi S, Ghasemi M. 2019.Investigation of the effect of to land use changes on flood hydrograph and fluctuations of groundwater level in part of Ghareh Souh Basin. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 8(3):41-58. (In Persian). Zeinali B, Mollanoori E, Safari SH. 2023. Investigation of land use changes and climatic components in Meshginshahr City. Journal of Water and Soil Resources Conservation, 12(3): 15-31. (In Persian). | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 135 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 2 |
||