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بررسی تغییرات کاربری زمین و شاخص‌های حدی هوا-آبشناسی در آبخیز رود میناب | ||
| پژوهش های آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 37، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 143، تیر 1403، صفحه 74-92 اصل مقاله (2.76 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/wmrj.2023.362493.1543 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مریم عباس زاده1؛ ام البنین بذرافشان* 2 | ||
| 1دانش آموخته دکتری گروه مهندسی منابع‌طبیعی، دانشکده علوم کشاورزی و منابع‌طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران | ||
| 2استاد گروه مهندسی منابع‌طبیعی، دانشکده‌ی علوم کشاورزی و منابع‌طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| مقدمه و هدف در سه دهه‌ی اخیر کاربری زمین در آبخیز رود میناب تغییرات محسوسی داشته است و این تغییرات به‌همراه تغییر اقلیم در آبخیز می تواند روی روند شاخص‌های هوا-آبشناسی تأثیرگذار باشد. از این رو، به‌دلیل تغییرات اقلیم و کاربری زمین‌های آبخیز رود میناب در دهه های گذشته تاکنون، بررسی روندها و تغییرات در شاخص های حدی بارش، دما و آب‌دهی جریان اهمیت ویژه ای دارد. بنابراین، این پژوهش با هدف بررسی روند تغییرات کاربری زمین و متغیرهای هوا-آب شناسی در آبخیز مزبور انجام شد. مواد و روش‌ها در این پژوهش، اطلاعات ایستگاه های آب‌‌سنجی، باران‌سنجی و تبخیرسنجی آبخیز میناب برای تعیین شاخص های حدی بر اساس استاندارد ETCCDI شامل بارش، دما و جریان رود بررسی شد. برای تحلیل روند از آزمون غیرسنجه‌ای (ناپارامتریک) من‌کندال استفاده شد. همچنین تغییرات کاربری زمین با استفاده از تصویرهای ماهواره‌ی لندست سری TM در سال‌های 1368، 1383 و 1399 به‌ترتیب از سنجنده های TM، ETM+ و OLI تعیین شد و صحت تصویرهای به‌دست آمده با آمار‌ه‌ی کاپا تأیید شد. نتایج و بحث نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد، روند تمام شاخص‌های حدی دمایی شامل شب‌های حاره‌ای، روزهای گرم، شب‌های گرم و دامنه‌ی دمای شبانه‌روزی افزایشی بود. در برخی ایستگاه‌ها، روند شاخص‌های حدی بارش، بارش سنگین (10، 20 و 30 میلی‌متر) روند افزایشی بود، اما روند بارش میانگین سالانه، افزایشی بود. روند تعداد روزهای تر (روزهای بارانی) و روزهای خشک (خشکسالی) به‌ترتیب کاهشی و افزایشی بود. بررسی تغییرات وضعیت بارش منطقه نشان داد، شدت بارش در زمان تداوم‌های 15 و 45 دقیقه‌ای افزایش یافت. با توجه به تغییرات رخ داده، تغییر وضعیت بارش در منطقه حتمی است. بررسی تغییرات کاربری زمین در سه دهه‌ی گذشته نشان داد، 11% از سطح زمین‌های مرتعی کاهش‌یافته است و زمین‌های کشاورزی و مسکونی به‌ترتیب 220 و 280% افزایش داشته‌اند. نتیجه‌گیری و پیشنهادها یافته های این پژوهش نشان داد به رغم افزایش میانگین سالانه‌ی باران (16میلی‌متر در سال)، و دیگر شاخص های بارش که فاقد روند معنی دار بودند، روند شدت بارش 15 و 45 دقیقه ای افزایشی و معنی دار بود. برخلاف روند بارش که نمی‌توان آن را با اطمینان زیاد اثبات کرد، روند افزایشی همه شاخص های دمایی (به‌طور میانگین °0/9C در سال)، تغییرات اقلیمی در آبخیز میناب را تأیید کرد. از طرف دیگر، روند شاخص های جریان کمینه و بیشینه و بیشینه‌ی لحظه ای نیز در آبخیز افزایشی بود و می‌تواند یکی از دلیل‌های آن تغییرات وضعیت بارش، احداث سد و تغییرات کاربری از زمین‌های مرتعی و جنگی به کشاورزی و مسکونی باشد. بر پایه‌ی نتایج این پژوهش پیشنهاد می‌شود، اثر تغییرات آینده‌ی اقلیم بر متغیرهای هوا-آب شناسی بررسی و یافته‌های آن در مدیریت منابع‌طبیعی به‌کار گرفته شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| آزمون من-کندال؛ بارش های حدی؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ شاخص های جریان رود | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigating Changes of Land Use and Hydroclimatic Extreme Indices in Minab River Basin | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Maryam Abbaszadeh1؛ Ommolbanin Bazrafshan2 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Graduated, Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran | ||
| 2Professor, Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction and Goal In the last three decades, land use in the Minab river basin has undergone significant changes and these changes along with climate change in the basin can affect the trend of hydroclimatic variables. Due to the changes that have occurred in the climate and land use of the Minab River Basin in the past decades until now, the investigation of trends and changes in the threshold indicators of precipitation, temperature and flow rate becomes particularly important. Therefore, the aim of the current research is to investigate the trend of land use changes and hydroclimatic variables in the Minab basin. Materials and Methods In the current research, the data of hydrometric, rain gauge and evapotranspiration stations in the Minab watershed were analyzed to extract threshold indices based on the ETCCDI standard including precipitation, temperature and river flow. Trend analysis was done using a non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Also, land use changes were extracted using TM series Landsat satellite images in 1989, 2004, and 2020 from TM, ETM+, and OLI sensors, respectively, and the accuracy of the extracted images was confirmed with Kappa statistics. Results and Discussion The finding showed that all the temperature limit indices, including tropical nights, hot days, hot nights and the range of day and night temperature, have an increasing trend. The extreme precipitation indices, heavy precipitation of 10, 20, and 30 mm in some stations has an increasing trend, but the annual average precipitation has an increasing trend. The number of wet days is decreasing and the number of dry days is increasing. The investigation of the changes in the rainfall regime of the region showed that the intensity of the rainfall is increasing in the duration of 15 and 45 minutes. According to the changes that have occurred, the change in the precipitation situation in the region is inevitable. The survey of land use changes over the past three decades showed that 22% of the pasture land area has decreased, and residential and agricultural land has increased by 280 and 220%, respectively. Conclusion and Suggestion The findings of this research showed that despite the increase in the average annual rainfall (16 mm per year), and other rainfall indicators that had no significant trend, the trend of 15 and 45 minute rainfall intensity was increasing and significant. Contrary to the trend of precipitation, which cannot be proven with great certainty, the increasing trend of all temperature indices (on average 0.9°C per year) confirmed the climatic changes in the Minab watershed. On the other hand, the trend of minimum and maximum stream flow and maximum discharge was also increasing in the watershed, and it can be one of the reasons for the changes in rainfall, construction of dams, and changes in land use from pasture and war lands to agriculture and residential. Based on the results of this research, it is suggested to investigate the effect of future climate changes on meteorological and hydrological variables and use its findings in natural resources management. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Climate changes, Mann-Kendall test, precipitation extreme, stream flow indicators | ||
| مراجع | ||
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