اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات283
تعداد نشریات سازمان81
تعداد شماره‌ها2,727
تعداد مقالات31,051
تعداد مشاهده مقاله28,149,686
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله16,250,679
صالح نیا, مینا. (1401). آثار اقتصادی تغییر اقلیم بر محصولات منتخب راهبردی در ایران. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 30(3), 175-205. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.356916.1403
مینا صالح نیا. "آثار اقتصادی تغییر اقلیم بر محصولات منتخب راهبردی در ایران". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 30, 3, 1401, 175-205. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.356916.1403
صالح نیا, مینا. (1401). 'آثار اقتصادی تغییر اقلیم بر محصولات منتخب راهبردی در ایران', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 30(3), pp. 175-205. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.356916.1403
صالح نیا, مینا. آثار اقتصادی تغییر اقلیم بر محصولات منتخب راهبردی در ایران. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1401; 30(3): 175-205. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.356916.1403

آثار اقتصادی تغییر اقلیم بر محصولات منتخب راهبردی در ایران

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
مقاله 7، دوره 30، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 119، آذر 1401، صفحه 175-205    اصل مقاله (1.71 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2023.356916.1403
نویسنده
مینا صالح نیا*
عضو هیئت علمی مؤسسه پژوهشهای برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی
چکیده
گرچه همه بخش­ های مختلف اقتصادی از تغییرات اقلیم تأثیر می‏ پذیرند، اما وابستگی بخش کشاورزی به اقلیم بیش از دیگر بخش‏ هاست. اثر منفی گرمایش جهانی بر کشاورزی تهدیدی برای امنیت غذایی محسوب می‌شود. از این ‏رو، کمی‌سازی آثار این تغییرات بر تولید محصولات کشاورزی بسیار ضروری می‌نماید. هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای اقلیمی بر میزان تولید محصولات راهبردی منتخب در ایران بود و بدین منظور، از رهیافت سری‌های زمانی و مدل اقتصادسنجی خودرگرسیونی با وقفه توزیعی (ARDL) استفاده شد. برآورد مدل با استفاده از داده ­های دوره زمانی 93-1340 نشان داد که محصولات برنج، جو، گندم و ذرت، به‏ ترتیب، بیشترین سرعت تعدیل را در واکنش به هر گونه تکانه (شوک) و انحراف از حالت تعادلی بلندمدت خود دارند؛ همچنین، از لحاظ تأثیرگذاری غلظت دی‏ اکسید کربن (CO2)، ذرت بیشترین افزایش تولید و برنج کمترین تأثیرپذیری مثبت را به ازای یک درصد افزایش دی‏اکسید کربن  بیشتر خواهند داشت. از بررسی مجموع نتایج می­توان دریافت که تاکنون اثر منفی معنی­دار از تغییر اقلیم بر تولید غلات کشور چه در کوتاه‏مدت و چه در بلندمدت مشاهده نشده و هرچند، در طول نیم قرن گذشته، تاثیرات منفی تغییر اقلیم با اتکای بیشتر بر بهره ‏برداری از منابع پایه آب و خاک جبران شده است، تداوم این وضعیت برای آینده امکان‏پذیر نیست. بنابراین، «بهره‏ گیری از فناوری­ های پیشرفته» و «ترویج کشاورزی هوشمند نسبت به اقلیم» را می‏توان راهکارهایی مناسب برای جلوگیری از وقوع پیامدهای فاجعه ‏بار تغییر اقلیم در بخش کشاورزی دانست.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تغییر اقلیم؛ آثار اقتصادی؛ بخش کشاورزی؛ مدل خودرگرسیونی با وقفه توزیعی؛ محصولات راهبردی؛ ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Selected Strategic Crops in Iran
نویسندگان [English]
M. Salehnia
Assistant Professor, Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]
Agriculture may be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its dependence on natural weather patterns and climate cycles for its productivity. Global warming may also threaten food security in the case of its negative effect on agriculture. Therefore, there is the need to empirically examine the effect of climate change on agriculture. This study aimed at investigating whether or not the climate change would be influencing the level of strategic crops production in Iran. For this purpose, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to estimate the impact of climate change on wheat, barely, maize and rice production. The results of historical data (1961-2014) estimation revealed that no significant negative effect of climate change on the selected crops production were observed yet either in the short term or in the long term while rice, barley, wheat and maize products, respectively, had the highest speed of adjustment in response to any shock and deviation from their long-term equilibrium state as well as in terms of the impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, the maize crop would have the greatest increase in production and rice would have the least positive impact per one percent increase in carbon dioxide. In addition, it was found that over the last half century, some negative effects of climate change were seemingly offset by more intense use of water and soil resources, though it would be no longer possible. Therefore, 'application of advanced technologies' and 'extension of climate-smart agriculture' could be considered as the appropriate solutions to prevent the catastrophic consequences of climate change on the agricultural sector. Also, according to the study results, some applicable adaptive measures were suggested to oppose any adverse shock to the crops production in Iran.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Climate Change, Economic Impacts, Agricultural Sector, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model, Strategic Crops, Iran
مراجع
  1. Adavi, Z., Tadayon, M.R. and Baghbani Arani, A. (2019). The effect of climate change on potato production and evaluation of adaptation strategies in climatic conditions of Fereydunshahr region. Plant Process and Function, 8(29): 151-169. (Persian)
  2. Alijani, F., Karbasi, A.R. and Mozafari, M. (2011). Investigation of the effect of temperature and rainfall on irrigated wheat yield in Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 19(76): 1-13. (Persian)
  3. Amiraslany, A. (2010). The impact of climate change on Canadian agriculture: a Ricardian approach. PhD Thesis, University of Saskatchewan, Department of Bioresource Policy, Business and Economics, Saskatoon. Available at https://harvest.usask.ca/bitstream/handle/10388/etd-05252010-102012/Thesis_Afshin_Amiraslany.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y.
  4. Amirnejad, H. and Asadpour Kordi, M. (2017). Investigating the effects of climate change on wheat production in Iran. Research in Economics and Agricultural Development of Iran, 9(3): 163-182. (Persian)
  5. Amponsah, L., Kofi Hoggar, G. and Yeboah Asuamah, S. (2015). Climate change and agriculture: modelling the impact of carbon dioxide emission on cereal yield in Ghana. Agriculture and Food Sciences Research , 2(2): 32-38.
  6. APERDRI (2018). Quantitative provincial goals of priority projects and executive plans of resistance economy in 2018. Tehran: Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad, Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI). (Persian)
  7. Barnwal, P. and Kotani, K. (2013). Climatic impacts across agricultural crop yield distributions: an application of quantile regression on rice crops in Andhra Pradesh, India. Ecological Economics, 87: 95-109.
  8. Chang, C.C. (2002). The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 27(1): 51-64.
  9. Duasa, J. (2007). Determinants of Malaysian trade balance: an ARDL bound testing approach. Global Economic Review, 36(1): 89-102.
  10. Dumrul, Y. and Kilicaslan, Z. (2017). Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: empirical evidence from ARDL approach for Turkey. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 6(4): 336-347.
  11. FAO (2012). FAO Production statistics. Available at http://faostat.faoorg/site/339/default.aspx.
  12. FAO (2018). Impact of climate change on farming systems and livelihoods in the Near East and North Africa. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Available at https://www.fao.org/publications/card/en/c/CA1439EN/.
  13. Foley, J.A., Ramankutty, N., Brauman, K.A., Cassidy, E.S., Gerber, J.S., Johnston, M., . . . West, P.C. (2011). Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature, 478(7369): 337-342.
  14. Frimpong, J.M. and Oteng-Abayie, E.F. (2006). Bounds testing approach: an examination of foreign direct investment, trade, and growth relationships. American Journal of Applied Sciences, Forthcoming. Available at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/352/1/MPRA_paper_352.pdf.
  15. Ghavidel, A., Farahanifard, S. and Mohammadinasab, M. (2018). Impacts of resilience economy on agricultural sector. Journal of Strategic and Macro Policies, 6: 790-807. (Persian)
  16. Godfray, H.C.J., Beddington, J.R., Crute, I.R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J.F., . . . Toulmin, C. (2010). Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 327(5967): 812-818.
  17. Hosseini, S., Nazari, M.R. and Eraghinejad, S. (2013). Investigating the effect of climate change on the agricultural sector with emphasis on the role of implementing adaptation strategies. Research in Economics and Agricultural Development of Iran, 44(1): 1-16. (Persian)
  18. Janjua, P.Z., Samad, G. and Khan, N. (2014). Climate change and wheat production in Pakistan: an autoregressive distributed lag approach. NJAS-Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 68: 13-19.
  19. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 231-254.
  20. Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Econ. and Statistics, 52: 169-210.
  21. Kemfert, C. (2008). Climate protection requirements – the economic impact of climate change. In: Handbook Utility Management (pp. 725-739), Springer.
  22. Kripfganz, S. and Schneider, D.C. (2018). ARDL: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models. The Proceedings of the 2018 London Stata Conference.
  23. Lu, S., Bai, X., Li, W. and Wang, N. (2019). Impacts of climate change on water resources and grain production. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 143: 76-84.
  24. Maharjan, K. L. and Joshi, N.P. (2013). Climate change, agriculture and rural livelihoods in developing countries. Springer.
  25. Mall, R.K., Gupta, A. and Sonkar, G. (2017). Effect of climate change on agricultural crops. In: Current Developments in Biotechnology and Bioengineering (pp. 23-46), Elsevier.
  26. Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W.D. and Shaw, D. (1994). The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. The American Economic Review, 84(4): 753-771.
  27. Mishra, D. and Sahu, N.C. (2014). Economic impact of climate change on agriculture sector of Coastal Odisha. APCBEE Procedia, 10: 241-245.
  28. Narayan, P.K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17): 1979-1990.
  29. Noferesti, M. (1999). Unit root and cointegaration in econometrics. Tehran: Rasa Institution. (Persian)
  30. Pesaran, M. and Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: interactive econometric analysis, windows version. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  31. Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In: Strom, S. (ed.) Econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge University Press.
  32. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3): 289-326.
  33. Ray, D. K., Mueller, N.D., West, P.C. and Foley, J.A. (2013). Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by, 2050. PloS One, 8(6): e66428.
  34. Reid, D. (2018). UN report identifies where global harvests will rise and fall by 2050. Available at https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/un-report-shows-climate-changeeffect-on-farming.html (1.7. 2019).
  35. Reidsma, P., Oude Lansink, A. and Ewert, F. (2009). Economic impacts of climatic variability and subsidies on European agriculture and observed adaptation strategies. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 14(1): 35-59.
  36. Rosegrant, M.W., Ewing, M., Yohe, G., Burton, I., Huq, S. and Valmonte-Santos, R. (2008). Climate change and agriculture: threats and opportunities. Eschborn, Germany: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development.
  37. Shrestha, M.B. and Bhatta, G.R. (2018). Selecting appropriate methodological framework for time series data analysis. The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 4(2): 71-89.
  38. Tilman, D., Balzer, C., Hill, J. and Befort, B.L. (2011). Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(50): 20260-20264.
  39. UN (2012). World population prospects 2012. United Nations (UN): Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Available at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm.
  40. Vaseghi, A. and Esmaieli, A. (2008). Investigating the economic effect of climate change on Iran's agricultural sector: Ricardian method (case study: wheat). Journal of Agricultural and Natural Resources Science and Technology, 12(45): 685-696. (Persian)
 
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 317
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 262


counter
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب