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فتحی, فاطمه, شیخ زین الدین, آذر, فرج زاده, زکریا. (1401). بهینه‌یابی واردات و تولید گوشت قرمز ایران بأ تأکید بر پایداری منابع آب. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 30(1), 29-56. doi: 10.30490/aead.2022.353102.1294
فاطمه فتحی; آذر شیخ زین الدین; زکریا فرج زاده. "بهینه‌یابی واردات و تولید گوشت قرمز ایران بأ تأکید بر پایداری منابع آب". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 30, 1, 1401, 29-56. doi: 10.30490/aead.2022.353102.1294
فتحی, فاطمه, شیخ زین الدین, آذر, فرج زاده, زکریا. (1401). 'بهینه‌یابی واردات و تولید گوشت قرمز ایران بأ تأکید بر پایداری منابع آب', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 30(1), pp. 29-56. doi: 10.30490/aead.2022.353102.1294
فتحی, فاطمه, شیخ زین الدین, آذر, فرج زاده, زکریا. بهینه‌یابی واردات و تولید گوشت قرمز ایران بأ تأکید بر پایداری منابع آب. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1401; 30(1): 29-56. doi: 10.30490/aead.2022.353102.1294

بهینه‌یابی واردات و تولید گوشت قرمز ایران بأ تأکید بر پایداری منابع آب

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
مقاله 2، دوره 30، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 117، خرداد 1401، صفحه 29-56    اصل مقاله (1.1 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2022.353102.1294
نویسندگان
فاطمه فتحی1؛ آذر شیخ زین الدین* 2؛ زکریا فرج زاده3
1استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
2نویسنده مسئول و استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
3دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران.
چکیده
برای تأمین پروتیئن حیوانی خانوارهای ایران، گوشت قرمز از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. اما  عرضه این محصول در سال‌های گذشته از چالش‌های عمده‌ای از جمله نوسان‏ های ارزی، قاچاق دام به کشورهای همسایه و واردات گوشت منجمد با ارز یارانه ای  تأثیر پذیرفته است. افزون بر این، همواره در کشورمان، خودکفایی در تولید این محصول مورد تأکید قرار گرفته است، که البته با توجه به قرار گرفتن ایران در مرحله تنش آبی بر اساس شاخص «فالکن مارک»، منجر به تشدید این بحران خواهد شد. از این ‏رو، در مطالعه حاضر، با بررسی سناریوهای مختلف تولید داخلی و واردات گوشت قرمز، به‏ طور هم‏زمان، به دو هدف صرفه جویی در هزینه ‏های تأمین و میزان مصرف آب پرداخته شد. بدین منظور، از برنامه ریزی چندهدفه با اهداف حداقل ‏سازی هزینه تأمین نیاز داخلی و میزان رد پای آب در تولید داخلی و داده های بازه زمانی 2000 تا 2018 استفاده شد. سناریوهای منتخب شامل ترکیبی از اهداف یادشده بودند که وزن های مختلف به آنها تعلق گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که تأمین سی تا چهل درصد از نیاز داخل از طریق تولید داخلی بر اساس وزن های اختصاص‏ یافته به اهداف تعیین‏ شده توجیه پذیر است؛ و باید باقی‏مانده نیاز کشور از سایر کشورها تأمین شود. همچنین، یافته ها نشان داد که ترکیب یادشده برای تولید داخل و واردات قادر است هزینه های تأمین نیاز داخل و رد پای آب را به طور محسوس کاهش دهد، به گونه ای که افزون بر کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای، به ‏طور متوسط، از میزان مصرف آب 63 درصد و از هزینه های تأمین نیاز داخلی 42 درصد کاسته شود. در پایان، واردات گوشت گوسفند از استرالیا و یا گوشت گاو با استخوان از برزیل پیشنهاد شد. 
کلیدواژه‌ها
واردات؛ رد پای آب؛ گوشت قرمز؛ برنامه‌ریزی چندهدفه؛ ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Optimization of Import and Production of Iranian Red Meat with Emphasis on Sustainability of Water Resources
نویسندگان [English]
F. Fathi1؛ A. Sheikhzeionddin2؛ Z. Farajzadeh3
1Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2Corresponding Author and Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
3Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
چکیده [English]
Red meat plays an important role in providing animal protein of Iranian households. However, its supply has experienced some challenges stemming from exchange rate fluctuations, smuggling livestock to the neighboring countries, and importing frozen meat financed by subsidized currency. In addition, there has been significant emphasis on self-sufficiency and providing the red meat domestically. On the other hand, based on Falcon Mark index, Iran has encountered water tension, the situation that may be getting worse as self-sufficiency is more focused. Regarding the problem, this study aimed at investigating different scenarios of domestically-produced and import of red meat with due consideration of simultaneously minimizing the costs of red meat and water use. For this purpose, multiobjective programing was applied using data for 2000-2018 in which minimization of spending for domestic consumption and water footprint embodied in domestic production was included. The selected scenarios were different combinations of the weights for minimization objectives. The results showed that depending on the weights assigned to the objectives, providing 30-40 percent of domestic need from domestically produced red meat was recommended while the remaining need might be provided via imports. The findings revealed that recommended combination for domestically-produced and imported red meat could reduce the spending on domestic need and water footprint significantly, resulting in 63 percent and 42 percent reduction in water use and cost spending, respectively; in addition, greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced. These results are the result of importing sheep meat from Australia or cattle meat with bones from Brazil. In spite of a significant reduction in the objectives’ values, the selected countries for import revealed a low diversity.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Import, Water Footprint, Red Meat, Multi-objective Planning, Iran
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آمار
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