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تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اثرگذار بر واردات شکر با تأکید بر نقش بودجه‌های تحقیق و توسعه | ||
| چغندرقند | ||
| مقاله 10، دوره 37، شماره 2، مهر 1400، صفحه 247-262 اصل مقاله (679.75 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: کامل علمی - پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/jsb.2022.355444.1283 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| حسین نوروزی1؛ حامد رفیعی* 2؛ سید صفدر حسینی3؛ سعید یزدانی3؛ امیر حسین چیذری2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکترای گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران. کرج، ایران. | ||
| 2استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران. کرج، ایران. | ||
| 3استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران. کرج، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| واردات از دیرباز ابزاری برای دستیابی به محصولات با کمترین هزینه ممکن و تنظیم بازار بوده است. توجه به اهمیت تجارت بین‌الملل، تحلیل و شناخت روابط تجاری کشور و بررسی موانع و یا مشوق‌های آن، نقش مؤثری در جریان تجارت دارد. تحقیق و توسعه، نوآوری و تکنولوژی به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین عوامل ایجادکننده مزیت، نقش به‌سزایی در شکل‌دهی الگوهای تجارت دارند در پژوهش پیش‌رو عوامل مؤثر بر واردات شکر با تأکید بر نقش تحقیق و توسعه در قالب الگوی VECM در دوره زمانی 2019-2001 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. مطابق نتایج، تحقیق و توسعه، نسبت قیمت شکر داخلی به وارداتی، تولید چغندرقند، نرخ ارز و بارندگی سالانه بر واردات شکر اثر منفی و معنی‌داری دارند. هم‌چنین متغیر درآمدهای نفتی اثر مثبت بر میزان واردات شکر دارد. ضریب متغیر سرعت تعدیل تکانه‌ها (ECM) نشان‌دهنده‌ی آن است که در هر دوره 31 درصد از شوک‌های کوتاه‌مدت تعدیل خواهد شد. بنابراین در صورت بروز شوک‌های کوتاه‌مدت جهت تعدیل آثار این شوک‌ها، بیش از سه دوره زمانی نیاز خواهد بود. با توجه به اثرگذاری منفی متغیرهای تحقیق و توسعه بر واردات، توجه ویژه به مطالعات کاربردی که منتج به افزایش بهره‌وری از طریق سیستم‌های آبیاری، بذرهای اصلاح شده و ماشین‌آلات جدید توصیه می‌گردد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تجارت؛ چغندرقند؛ درآمدهای نفتی؛ قیمت کالای واردتی؛ نرخ ارز | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Analysis of factors affecting sugar import with emphasis on the role of research and development budgets | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| H. Noroozi1؛ H. Rafiee2؛ S.S. Hosseini3؛ S. Yazdani3؛ A.H. Chizari2 | ||
| 1PhD student of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran. | ||
| 2Assistant Professor of Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran. | ||
| 3Professor of Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Importing has long been a means to obtain products at the lowest possible cost and to regulate market. Considering the importance of international trade, analyzing and recognizing the country's trade relations and evaluating its obstacles or incentives, have an effective role in the flow of trade. Research and development, innovation and technology as the most important factors that create advantage, play a significant role in the formation of business patterns. In this study, the effective factors on sugar import have been evaluated with an emphasis on the role of research and development in the form of VECM model in the time period of 2001-2019. According to the results, research and development, the domestic sugar price to imported sugar ratio, sugar beet production, exchange rate, and annual rainfall have a negative and significant effect on sugar import. Also, the variable of oil revenues has a positive effect on the amount of sugar import. The variable coefficient of error correction model (ECM) indicates that 31% of short-term shocks will be adjusted in each period. Therefore, in case of short-term shocks, more than three time periods will be needed to adjust the effects of these shocks. Considering the negative effect of research and development variables on imports, special attention is recommended to applied studies that result in increased productivity through irrigation systems, improved seeds, and new machinery. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Exchange Rate, Oil Revenues, Price of Imported Goods, Sugar Beet, Trade | ||
| مراجع | ||
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