| تعداد نشریات | 286 |
| تعداد نشریات سازمان | 84 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 3,028 |
| تعداد مقالات | 33,822 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 45,234,083 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 59,346,162 |
تعیین مطلوبیت رویشگاه سفیدپلت (.Populus caspica Bornm) و مهمترین متغیرهای اقلیمی تأثیر‌‌گذار بر پراکنش آن در جنگلهای هیرکانی | ||
| تحقیقات جنگل و صنوبر ایران | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 29، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 84، تیر 1400، صفحه 188-176 اصل مقاله (1.1 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی- پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijfpr.2021.354716.2001 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| شیرین علی پور1؛ ضیاالدین باده یان* 2؛ حامد یوسف زاده3؛ کامبیز اسپهبدی4؛ فرهاد اسدی4 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری جنگل‌‌شناسی و اکولوژی جنگل، گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران | ||
| 2نویسنده مسئول، استادیار، گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران | ||
| 3دانشیار، گروه محیط‌زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیتمدرس، نور، ایران | ||
| 4دانشیار پژوهش، بخش تحقیقات منابع طبیعی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان مازندران، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، ساری، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تغییر اقلیم می‌‌تواند تهدیدی جدی برای گونه‌‌های مختلف بومی در جنگلهای هیرکانی باشد. بااین‌حال، تاکنون پژوهشی در ارتباط با تعیین پیامد‌‌های تغییر اقلیم بر روند الگوهای پراکنش (Populus caspica Bornm.) انجام نشده است. در پژوهش پیش‌رو به‌منظور شناسایی ارتباط بین پراکنش سفیدپلت با متغیرهای اقلیمی و تعیین رویشگاه‌‌های مطلوب تحت شرایط اقلیم کنونی و آینده (سناریوی RCP 8.5 تا سال 2070) از تئوری آشیان بوم‌شناختی، نرم‌افزار MAXENT و نیز داده‌‌های حضور این گونه در سطح جنگلهای هیرکانی استفاده شد. بر‌‌اساس ارزیابی سطح زیر منحنی ROC، ارزش زیاد شاخص AUC (993/0) نشان‌دهنده کارآمدی مدل مورد استفاده در تعیین رویشگاه بالقوه سفیدپلت بود. مهمترین متغیرهای مؤثر در تعیین رویشگاه این گونه شامل بارش در خشک‌‌ترین ماه سال، تغییرات دمای سالانه، میانگین دمای سالانه و هم‌‌دمایی بودند. همچنین، تحت شرایط اقلیم کنونی، مساحت مطلوبیت رویشگاه‌‌های این گونه در جنگلهای هیرکانی 3/88317 کیلو‌‌متر مربع است و در 75/38 درصد از منطقه، پتانسیل خوبی برای حضور سفیدپلت وجود دارد، درحالی‌که نتایج سناریو آینده (RCP 8.5) نشان‌دهنده کاهش 4/48 درصدی مساحت مطلوبیت رویشگاه این گونه نسبت به شرایط فعلی است. از نتایج این پژوهش می‌‌توان در راستای تصمیمات مدیریتی، برنامه‌‌ریزی‌‌های حفاظتی و اصلاحی با درنظر گرفتن اثر تغییر اقلیم بر مطلوبیت رویشگاه‌‌ها و پاسخ گونه به تغییر اقلیم استفاده کرد و راهبردهای حفاظتی سفیدپلت (در درون یا بیرون از رویشگاه) را تدوین کرد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییر اقلیم؛ حفاظت؛ گونه بومی؛ مدل MAXENT | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Predicting the suitable habitat of Caspian poplar (Populus caspica Bornm.) and the most influential climatic variables on its potential distribution in the Hyrcanian forests, Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Sh. Alipour1؛ Ziaedin Badehian2؛ H. Yusefzadeh3؛ K. Espahbodi4؛ F. Asadi4 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Student of Silviculture and Forest Ecology, Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran | ||
| 2Corresponding author, Assistant Prof., Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran | ||
| 3Associate Prof., Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Science, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Iran | ||
| 4Associate Prof., Research Division of Natural Resources, Mazandaran Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Sari, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Climate change can be a major threat to the endemic species of the Hyrcanian forests. However, there have been almost no studies in terms of determining consequences of climate change on the distribution patterns of Populus caspica Bornm. In this study, ecological niche theory and MAXENT software as well as P. caspica presence data across the Hyrcanian forests of Iran were used to identify the relationships between species data to the climatic predictor variables under current and future (RCP 8.5) (2070) climate conditions. According to analysis of area under the ROC curve, the high value of AUC index (0.993) indicated the efficiency of the model in determining the potential habitat of P. caspica. Precipitation of driest month, temperature annual range, mean annual temperature, and isothermality were the most important bioclimatic variables in the determination of potential habitat for P. caspica. Moreover, our results demonstrated that the habitat suitability area of this species was 88317.3 km2 under current climate condition and 38.75% area was identified as a "good potential" level for the presence of P. caspica. Whereas under projected future climate (RCP 8.5), suitable areas would be decreased by 48.4% compared to the current condition. The results of this study can be applied in approaches management, conservation planning and reforestation by taking into account the effect of climate change on habitat suitability and species response to its changes and conservation strategies will be compiled for this species. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Climate change, conservation, endemic species, MAXENT model | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
- Ahmadi, K., Alavi, S.J., Amiri, G.Z., Hosseini, S.M., Serra-Diaz, J.M and Svenning, J.C., 2020. The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian forest region (Iran). International Journal of Biometeorology, 64: 1451-1462. - Akhani, H., Djamali, M., Ghorbanalizadeh, A. and Ramezani, E., 2010. Plant biodiversity of Hyrcanian relict forests, N Iran: an overview of the flora, vegetation, palaeoecology and conservation. Pakistan Journal of Botany, 42(1): 231-258. - Alavi, S.J., Ahmadi, K., Hosseini, S.M., Tabari, M. and Nouri, Z., 2019. The response of English Yew (Taxus Baccata L.) to climate change in the Caspian Hyrcanian mixed forest ecoregion. Regional Environmental Change, 19(5): 1495-1506. - Alipour, Sh., Yousefzadeh, H., Badehian, Z., Asadi, F., Espahbodi, K. and Dering, M., 2021. Genetic diversity and structure of the endemic and critically endangered Populus caspica in the Hyrcanian forests. Tree Genetics & Genomes, 17(2): 19. - Asadi, F. and Ghasemi, R., 2007. Evaluation of rooting success in poplar clones cuttings using different treatments. Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 15(2): 134-143 (In Persian). - Asadi, F., Mirzaei Nodushan, H. and Mokhtari, J., 2017. Comparison of Populus caspica growth behavior and their progenies. Journal of Forest and Wood Products, 69(4): 713-723 (In Persian). - Attarod, P., Kheirkhah, F., Khalighi Sigaroodi, S., Sadeghi, S.S.M., Dolatshahi, A. and Bayramzadeh, V., 2017. Trend analysis of meteorological parameters and reference evapotranspiration in the Caspian region. Iranian Journal of Forest, 9(2): 171-185 (In Persian). - Bagley, J.C., Heming, N.M., Gutiérrez, E.E., Devisetty, U.K., Mock, K.E., Eckert, A.J. and Strauss, S.H., 2020. Genotyping-by-sequencing and ecological niche modeling illuminate phylogeography, admixture, and Pleistocene range dynamics in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides). Ecology and Evolution, 10(11): 4609-4629. - Browicz, K., 1982. Chorology of Trees and Shrubs in South-West Asia and Adjacent Regions. Państwowe Wydawnictwo Naukowe, Poznań, Poland, 172p. - Case, M.J. and Lawler, J.J., 2017. Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America. Global Change Biology, 23(5): 2005-2015. - Fallah, H., Tabari, M., Azadfar, D. and Babaie, F., 2012. Investigation of genetic diversity in endangered stands of Populus caspica Bornm. of sub-mountain forests in north of Iran. Iranian Journal of Rangelands and Forests Plant Breeding and Genetic Research, 19(2): 289-303 (In Persian). - Greer, B.T., Still, C., Howe, G.T., Tague, C. and Roberts, D.A., 2016. Populations of aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) with different evolutionary histories differ in their climate occupancy. Ecology and Evolution, 6(9): 3032-3039. - Guo, Y., Li, X., Zhao, Z. and Wei, H., 2018. Modeling the distribution of Populus euphratica in the Heihe River Basin, an inland river basin in an arid region of China. Science China Earth Sciences, 61(11): 1669-1684. - Haidarian Aghakhani, M., Tamartash, R., Jafarian, Z., Tarkesh Esfahani, M. and Tatian, M.R., 2017a. Forecasts of climate change effects on Amygdalus Scoparia potential distribution by using ensemble modeling in central Zagros. Journal of RS and GIS for Natural Resources, 8(3): 1-14 (In Persian). - Haidarian Aghakhani, M., Tamartash, R., Jafarian, Z., Tarkesh Esfahani, M. and Tatian, M.R., 2017b. Predicting the impacts of climate change on Persian oak (Quercus Brantii) using species distribution modelling in central Zagros for conservation planning. Journal of Environmental Studies, 43(3): 497-511 (In Persian). - Hamann, A. and Wang, T., 2006. Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in British Columbia. Ecology, 87(11): 2773-2786. - Hamzeh’ee, B., Naqinezhad, A., Attar, F., Ghahreman, A., Assadi, M. and Prieditis, N., 2008. Phytosociological survey of remnant Alnus glutinosa ssp. barbata communities in the lowland Caspian forests of Northern Iran. Phytocoenologia, 38(1-2): 117-132. - Hasui, É., Silva, V.X., Cunha, R.G.T., Ramos, F.N., Ribeiro, M.C., Sacramento, M., … and Ribeiro, B.R., 2017. Additions of landscape metrics improve predictions of occurrence of species distribution models. Journal of Forestry Research, 28(5): 963-974. - Horenko, I., Marchenko, G. and Gagliardini, P., 2020. On a computationally-scalable sparse formulation of the multidimensional and non-stationary maximum entropy principle. Communications in Applied Mathematics and Computational Science, 15(2): 129-146. - Ingvarsson, P.K. and Bernhardsson, C., 2020. Genome‐wide signatures of environmental adaptation in European aspen (Populus Tremula) under current and future climate conditions. Evolutionary Applications, 13(1): 132-142. - Jalili, A. and Jamzad, Z., 1999. Red Data Book of Iran: A Preliminary Survey of Endemic, Rare and Endangered Plant Species of Iran. Published by Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Tehran, 748p. - Ketek Lahijani, H.A., Tavakoli, V. and Amini, A.H., 2008. South Caspian river mouth configuration under human impact and sea level fluctuations. Environmental Sciences, 5(2): 65-86. - Li, J., Liu, G., Lu, Q., Zhang, Y., Li, G. and Du, S., 2019. Future climate change will have a positive effect on Populus davidiana in China. Forests, 10(12): 1120. - Meng, H., Wei, X., Franklin, S.B., Wu, H. and Jiang, M., 2017. Geographical variation and the role of climate in leaf traits of a relict tree species across its distribution in China. Plant Biology 19(4): 552-561. - Mohammadi, A., Alavi, S.J. and Hosseini, S.M., 2019. Predicting the potential habitat of Wych elm (Ulmus glabra Huds.) using the Maxent model in Kheyrod forest. Iranian Journal of Forest, 10(4): 475-486 (In Persian). - Nazari, M. and Fallah, H., 2016. Identifying indicator plants and their importance for expressing Populus caspica habitats in Hyrcanian forests. Journal of Natural Ecosystems of Iran, 6(4): 45-56 (In Persian). - Neumann, A. and Skvortsov, A.K., 1969. Flora Iranica, Vol. 65: Salicaceae: 45p. In: Rechinger, K.H. (Ed.), 1963-2015. Flora Iranica, Vols. 1-181. Akademische Druck und Verlagsanstalt, Verlag des Naturhistorischen Museum Wien, Graz and Wien. - Pearson, R.G. and Dawson, T.P., 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12(5): 361-371. - Rafiee, Gh., Jafari, R., Matinkhah, S.H., Tarkesh, M., Karimzadeh, H.R. and Jafari, Z., 2020. Predicting the potential habitat distribution of Crataegus pontica C. Koch, using a combined modeling approach in Lorestan province. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology, 9(2): 45-59 (In Persian). - Rogers, P.C., Pinno, B.D., Šebesta, J., Albrectsen, B.R., Li, G., Ivanova, N., … and Kulakowski, D., 2020. A global view of aspen: Conservation science for widespread keystone systems. Global Ecology and Conservation, 21: e00828. - Sadati, S.E., Tabari, M., Assareh, M.H., Heidari Sharifabad, H. and Fayaz, P., 2011. Response of Populus caspica Bornm. seedlings to flooding. Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 19(3): 340-355 (In Persian). - Sagheb Talebi, Kh., Sajedi, T. and Pourhashemi, M., 2014. Forests of Iran: A Treasure from the Past, a Hope for the Future. Springer, Dordrecht, 152p. - Sun, J., Jiao, W., Wang, Q., Wang, T., Yang, H., Jin, J., … and Wang, W., 2021. Potential habitat and productivity loss of Populus deltoides industrial forest plantations due to global warming. Forest Ecology and Management, 496: 119474. - Taleshi, H., Jalali, S.Gh., Alavi, S.J., Hosseini, S.M. and Naimi, B., 2020. Projection of climate change impacts on potential distribution of chestnut-leaved oak (Quercus castaneifolia C.A.M.) using ensemble modeling in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran. Ecology of Iranian Forest, 8(15): 10-21 (In Persian). - Taleshi, H., Jalali, S.Gh., Alavi, S.J., Hosseini, S.M., Naimi, B. and Zimmermann, N.E., 2019. Climate change impacts on the distribution and diversity of major tree species in the temperate forests of northern Iran. Regional Environmental Change, 19(8): 2711-2728. - Tognetti, R., 2012. Adaptation to climate change of dioecious plants: does gender balance matter? Tree Physiology, 32(11): 1321-1324. - Wisz, M.S., Pottier, J., Kissling, W.D., Pellissier, L., Lenoir, J., Damgaard, C.F., … and Svenning, J.C., 2013. The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling. Biological Reviews, 88(1): 15-30. - Zeng, Y.F., Zhang, J.G., Abuduhamiti, B., Wang, W.T. and Jia, Z.Q., 2018. Phylogeographic patterns of the desert poplar in Northwest China shaped by both geology and climatic oscillations. BMC Evolutionary Biology, 18(1): 75. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 692 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 398 |
||