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شبیه‌سازی آینده تغییرات مکانی و زمانی کاربری و پوشش اراضی در مناطق خشک (مطالعه موردی: دشت میناب) | ||
| تحقیقات مرتع و بیابان ایران | ||
| مقاله 11، دوره 28، شماره 3، مهر 1400، صفحه 520-536 اصل مقاله (1.79 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijrdr.2021.125019 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| حامد اسکندری دامنه1؛ غلامرضا زهتابیان2؛ حسن خسروی* 3؛ حسین آذرنیوند2؛ علی اکبر براتی4 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکترای بیابان‌زدایی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| 2استاد، گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| 3دانشیار، استاد، گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران، | ||
| 4استادیار، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در این تحقیق به شبیه‌سازی کاربریهای موجود در دشت میناب با استفاده از روش ترکیبی CA-Markov پرداخته شد. بدین‌منظور نقشه کاربری اراضی برای سال‌های 1379، 1389 و 1399 با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره لندست با روش طبقه‌بندی حداکثر احتمال تولید گردید و بعد از ارزیابی مدل، نقشه کاربری برای سال 1409 و 1419 با استفاده از روش ترکیبی CA-Markov پیش‌بینی شد. تجزیه‌وتحلیل الگوهای تغییرات کاربری در دشت میناب نشان داد که در طول دوره آماری 1379-1399در سطح کاربریهای این منطقه تغییرات چشمگیری رخ داده است. به‌طوری‌که در طول این دوره 20 ساله مساحت کاربریهای کشاورزی، مناطق شهری و انسان‌ساخت، شوره‌زار و مراتع و اراضی بایر به‌ترتیب از 91/38، 99/25، 09/20 و 15 درصد در سال 1379 به 75/40، 02/40، 44/12 و 80/6 درصد در سال 1399 رسیده است. ارزیابی مدل با استفاده از شاخص کاپای بالای 90% نشان‌دهنده دقّت بالای مدل برای پیش‌بینی کاربری‌هاست. پیش‌بینی تغییرات در سال 1409 و 1419 نشان می‌دهد که کاربری زمین‌های کشاورزی و مناطق شهری و انسان‌ساخت به‌ترتیب با میزان 05/0 و 39/0 درصد در حال افزایش می‌باشند که از سمت شرق دشت به سمت غرب آن در حال پیشروی هستند؛ این درحالی است که کاربریهای شوره‌زار، مراتع و اراضی بایر در مجموع با میزان 44/0 درصد در حال کاهش است که این کاهش بیشتر در سمت غرب و شمال‌غرب این دشت قابل رؤیت است. در پایان از مهمترین راهکارهای اجرایی برنامه‌ریزان و مسئولان برای جلوگیری از تغییر کاربری و در نهایت تخریب اراضی در این منطقه، می‌توان به اصلاح الگوی کشت، روش‌های نوین آبیاری، تغذیه بستر این دشت و حفظ و احیای پوشش گیاهی بومی اشاره نمود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| دشت میناب؛ پیش‌بینی؛ کاربری اراضی؛ ضریب کاپا؛ سلول خودکار-زنجیره مارکوف | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Simulation of future spatial and temporal changes in land uses and cover in arid areas (Case study: Minab plain) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hamed Eskandari Damaneh1؛ Gholamreza Zehtabian2؛ Hassan Khosravi3؛ Hosein Azarnivand2؛ Aliakbar Barati4 | ||
| 1PhD Student De-Desertification, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 2Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 4Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In the present study, the existing land uses in the Minab plain were simulated using the CA-Markov combined method. For this purpose, land use maps for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020 were generated using Landsat satellite images using the maximum probability classification method and after evaluating the model, the land use map for 2030 and 2040 was predicted using the combined CA-Markov method. Analysis of land use change patterns in Minab plain showed that during the statistical period 2000-2020 in the level of land uses in this area has changed significantly so that during this 20-year period the area of agricultural land use, urban and man-made areas, saline lands and rangelands and barren lands respectively from 38.91, 25.99, 20.09 and 15 % in 2000 to 40.75, 40.02, 12.44 and 6.80 percent in 2020. Evaluation of the model using kappa index above 90% indicates the high accuracy of the model for predicting land uses. Prediction of changes in 2030 and 2040 show that the use of agricultural lands and urban areas and man-made are increasing at a rate of 0.05 and 0.39 %, respectively, which are advancing from the east of the plain to the west; Meanwhile, the uses of saline areas, rangelands and barren lands are decreasing at a rate of 0.44%, which is more evident in the west and northwest of this plain. Finally, one of the most important executive strategies of planners and officials to prevent land use change and ultimately land degradation in this area, can be to improve the cultivation pattern, new irrigation methods, nourish the bed of this plain and maintain and restore native vegetation. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Minab plain, prediction, land-use, Kappa coefficient, Cellular Automation-Markov Chain | ||
| مراجع | ||
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