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تعیین عامل‌های مؤثر و ارزیابی حساسیت به زمین لغزش با روش های جنگل تصادفی و شبکه‌ی عصبی مصنوعی در منطقه‌ی دوآب صمصامی استان چهارمحال و بختیاری | ||
| پژوهش های آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 5، دوره 35، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 134، فروردین 1401، صفحه 40-60 اصل مقاله (3.22 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/wmrj.2021.354962.1421 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| کورش شیرانی* 1؛ رضا نادری سامانی2 | ||
| 1دانشیار پژوهشکده‌ی حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2کارشناس مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان اصفهان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، اصفهان، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| زمینلغزش از جمله خطرهای زمینشناسی است که امروزه روشهای دادهکاوی مبتنی بر یادگیری ماشین برای مدلسازی و پیشبینی آن توسعه داده شده‌است. هدف‌های این پژوهش اولویت‌بندی عامل‌های مؤثر، پهنهبندی و پیشبینی حساسیت به رخ‌داد زمینلغزش با مدل‌های شبکه‌ی عصبی مصنوعی و جنگل تصادفی، و معرفی مناسبترین آنها در منطقه‌ی دوآب صمصامی استان چهارمحال و بختیاری است. برای پهنهبندی و مدلسازی از 15 عامل زمینشناسی، ریخت‌شناسی، آب‌شناسی، انسانساخت (متغیرهای مستقل) و 174 رخ‌داد زمینلغزش شناسایی و ثبت‌شده (متغیر وابسته) بهره‌گیری شد. رخ‌دادهای زمینلغزش به دو دسته‌ی داده‌ی آموزشی (70%) و آزمایشی (30 %) برای مدلسازی و اعتبارسنجی به‌شکل تصادفی تقسیم شد. ارتباط میان عامل‌های مؤثر و رخ‌دادهای لغزشی با نسبت فراوانی کمّی و وزندار شد. برای کاهش اثر همپوشانی اطلاعاتی عامل‌های مؤثر، با تحلیل وایازی چندمتغیره‌ی خطی، استقلال دادهها آزموده شد. برای مدلسازی و پهنهبندی حساسیت زمین لغزش، مدل‌های جنگل تصادفی و شبکه‌ی عصبی مصنوعی برازش و توسعه داده شد. نقشههای پهنه بندی حساسیت به‌دست‌آمده از برازش دو مدل با شاخصهای نسبت فراوانی-سطح سلول هسته، نرخ توفیق، و سطح زیر منحنی ویژگی عمل‌کرد گیرنده (AUC-ROC) ارزیابی، اعتبارسنجی و مقایسه کرده شد. نتیجه‌های بررسی عامل‌های مؤثر در هر دو مدل نشان داد که عامل‌های سنگ شناسی، کاربری و وجه شیب تأثیر بسزایی در رخ‌داد زمین لغزشها دارند و بخش زیادی (بیش از 82%) از زمینلغزشها در رده‌ها‌ی حساسیت خیلیزیاد و زیاد قرار می‌گیرند. نتیجه ارزیابی طبقهبندی و اعتبارسنجی مدلها نشان داد که دقت و کارآمدی مدل جنگل تصادفی (0/919AUC-ROC=) در پیشبینی رخ‌داد زمین لغزشها بیش‌تر از شبکه‌ی عصبی مصنوعی (0/845AUC-ROC=) است. نتیجه‌های این پژوهش ممکن است برای بهره‌گیری دستگاه‌های اجرایی در مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی کردن طرح‌های توسعه‌یی و اجرایی عمرانی، توسعه‌ی شهری، و روستایی، برآورد دقیق‌تر در مدل‌های فرسایش و رسوب در آبخیزها، حفاظت خاک و عرصه‌های منابع طبیعی کشور سودمند باشد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| پهنهبندی؛ جنگل تصادفی؛ دوآب صمصامی؛ زمینلغزش؛ شبکه‌ی عصبی مصنوعی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Determination of Effective factors and Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility Using Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network in Doab Samsami Region, Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari Province | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Kourosh Shirani1؛ Reza Naderi Samani2 | ||
| 1Associate Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Researcher, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Department, Isfahan Agricultural and Natural Resources, Research and Education Center, AREEO, Isfahan, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Nowadays, landslides are among the geological hazards that data mining methods based on machine learning have been developed to model and predict. This paper addresses the development of a landslide susceptibility assessment that uses machine learning techniques and GIS. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF) were compared for the landslide spatial modeling. The landslide susceptibility zoning maps consider 15 layers including geologic, morphologic, hydrologic, man-made parameters (independent variables) for landslide susceptibility assessment, and Doab Samsami watershed in Chaharmahal Bakhtiari province was chosen for the application of models due to data availability and the 174 total landslide occurrences (dependent variables). The relationship between effective factors and landslide occurrences was quantified and weighted using frequency ratio. Data independence was tested using linear multivariate regression analysis, tolerance, and VIF indices. In order to implement and validate the model, the landslide locations were randomly divided into two subsets, namely, training (70% of the total) and testing (30%), respectively. Subsequently, RF and ANN models were developed and the landslide susceptibility zonation map was produced. Maps were evaluated and validated using frequency ratio & seed cell area index, success rate, area under of receiver Operating characteristic (AUC-ROC). Results illustrated that the two factors of slope length and topographic wetness index have multicollinearity or information overlap and were removed from the modeling process in later stages. Effective factor analysis in both models showed that lithology, land use, and aspect slope factors had a significant effect on landslides, respectively. Also, the results of classification and validation of models showed that the random forest (RF) model (AUC-ROC = 0.919) was more accurate and efficient than the artificial neural network (AUC-ROC = 0.845) for landslide occurrence prediction. The results of this study can be used by executive administrations for management and planning in development and executive plans, including rural-urban development, accurate estimation in erosion models in watersheds, soil conservation, and natural resources protection. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Artificial neural network, Doab Samsami, landslide, random forest, zonation | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 900 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 962 |
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