اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات284
تعداد نشریات سازمان82
تعداد شماره‌ها3,078
تعداد مقالات34,318
تعداد مشاهده مقاله47,406,714
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله78,363,567
پریشان, مجید, دیانی, لیلا. (1399). ارائه الگوی مطلوب مدیریت ریسک مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) در مناطق روستایی: مطالعه موردی روستاهای استان قزوین. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 23(4), 23-60. doi: 10.30490/rvt.2020.336317.1167
مجید پریشان; لیلا دیانی. "ارائه الگوی مطلوب مدیریت ریسک مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) در مناطق روستایی: مطالعه موردی روستاهای استان قزوین". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 23, 4, 1399, 23-60. doi: 10.30490/rvt.2020.336317.1167
پریشان, مجید, دیانی, لیلا. (1399). 'ارائه الگوی مطلوب مدیریت ریسک مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) در مناطق روستایی: مطالعه موردی روستاهای استان قزوین', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 23(4), pp. 23-60. doi: 10.30490/rvt.2020.336317.1167
پریشان, مجید, دیانی, لیلا. ارائه الگوی مطلوب مدیریت ریسک مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) در مناطق روستایی: مطالعه موردی روستاهای استان قزوین. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1399; 23(4): 23-60. doi: 10.30490/rvt.2020.336317.1167

ارائه الگوی مطلوب مدیریت ریسک مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) در مناطق روستایی: مطالعه موردی روستاهای استان قزوین

روستا و توسعه
دوره 23، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 92، اسفند 1399، صفحه 23-60    اصل مقاله (1.26 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/rvt.2020.336317.1167
نویسندگان
مجید پریشان* 1؛ لیلا دیانی2
1استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
2دانش‌آموخته دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
عملیاتی شدن اهداف مدیریت ریسک زلزله در عرصه‌های فضایی روستایی مستلزم داشتن فرآیند و الگوی مطلوب مدیریت است. از این­رو، پژوهش حاضر  با هدف ارائه الگوی مطلوب مدیریت ریسک مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) در مناطق روستایی و با استفاده از مدل‌های ریاضی، برنامه‌ریزی مدیریت راهبردی (SMP) و برنامه‌ریزی مدیریت راهبردی کمی (QSMP) انجام شد. روش تحقیق از نوع توصیفی‌ـ کاربردی و شیوۀ جمع‌آوری اطلاعات نیز به دو صورت کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی بود. نخست، به‌منظور رتبه‌بندی ریسک آسیب‌پذیری منطقه مورد مطالعه، نوزده شاخص مناسب (همچون کیفیت مساکن، قدمت ساختمان‌ها، تراکم جمعیت، بزرگای زلزله) شناسایی و وزن‏دهی شدند و با گردآوری آمار و اطلاعات آنها، تحلیل داده‌ها صورت گرفت. سپس، دیدگاه پاسخ‏گویان شامل ۳۸۶ نفر از سرپرستان خانوارهای روستایی و ۲۹ نفر از اعضای نهادهای محلی در 29 روستای نمونه شهرستان منتخب از استان قزوین و همچنین، دیدگاه پانزده متخصص در زمینه مدیریت زلزله و برنامه‌ریزی برای کاهش آسیب‌پذیری، با بهره‌گیری از ۶۹ گویه در قالب پرسشنامه، دریافت، توصیف و تحلیل شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که الگوی مطلوب یکپارچه و پایدار مدیریت ریسک زلزله در مناطق روستایی (با اختصاص صد درصد امتیاز) مشتمل بر سه مرحله قبل (ارزیابی، پیشگیری و کاهش) با کسب پنجاه درصد، حین (پاسخ اضطراری و بازتوانی اولیه و ارزیابی) با ۲۱ درصد و بعد (بازسازی و پاکسازی، بازتوانی و ارزیابی) با ۲۹ درصد از کل امتیازات است. سرانجام، شناخت و ارتقای مؤلفه‌های مبنایی مدیریت ریسک زلزله به‌عنوان عناصر کلیدی در هر کدام از مراحل مدیریت ریسک زلزله مورد تأکید قرار گرفت.
کلیدواژه‌ها
توسعه پایدار؛ مدیریت ریسک؛ زلزله؛ روستا قزوین
عنوان مقاله [English]
Presetting a Desirable Pattern of Natural Hazard Risk Management (Earthquake) in Rural Areas: A Case Study of Villages in Qazvin Province of Iran
نویسندگان [English]
M. Parishan1؛ L. Dayyani2
1Assistant Professor of Geography, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran
2PhD Graduate in Geography and Rural Planning, Tarbiat Modares University (TMU), Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]
The operationalization of earthquake risk management objectives in rural areas requires a desirable management process and pattern. Therefore, this study aimed to desirable pattern of natural hazard risk management (earthquake) in rural areas using mathematical models, strategic management planning (SMP) and quantitative strategic management planning (QSMP). It was a descriptive and applied research, the required information of which were collected in both library and field methods. Initially, 19 appropriate indicators (such as housings quality, buildings age, population density, earthquake magnitude) were identified and weighted to rank the risks of vulnerability in the studied area and the data were analyzed after collecting their statistics and information. Then, the perspectives of respondents including 386 household members and 29 individuals from the local institutions (rural council and administrator) in 29 sample villages from a selected county in Qazvin province of Iran as well as the views of 15 specialists on management of earthquake risk and planning to reduce vulnerability were received, described and analyzed through 69 items within a questionnaire. The results showed that the desired integrated and sustainable pattern of earthquake risk management in the rural areas (with 100 percent allocation of scores) consisted of three stages including before (evaluation, prevention and reduction) with 50 percent, during (emergency response and initial rehabilitation and evaluation) with 21 percent and after (reconstruction and cleaning, rehabilitation and evaluation) with 29 percent of the total scores. Finally, understanding and promoting the basic components of earthquake risk management as key elements in each stage of earthquake risk management were emphasized.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Sustainable Development, Risk Management, Earthquake, Rural Areas, Qazvin (Province)
مراجع
  1. Ainuddin, S. and Routray, J.K. (2018). Earthquake hazards and community resilience in Baluchistan. Natural Hazards, 63(2): 909-937.
  2. AIRMIC (2005). A risk management standard. UK: The Institute of Risk Management (IRM), The Association of Insurance and Risk Managers (AIRMIC) and ALARM The National Forum for Risk Management in the Public Sector.
  3. Al-Nammaria, F. and Alzaghalb, M. (2015). Towards local disaster risk reduction in developing countries: challenges from Jordan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 12: 34-41.
  4. Amiri, A. and Tabatabaei, R. (2008). Earthquake risk management strategy plan using nonparametric estimation of hazard rate. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 5(5): 581-585.
  5. Armas, I., Toma-Danila, D., Ionescu, R. and Gavris, A. (2017). Vulnerability to earthquake hazard: Bucharest case study, Romania. Int J Disaster Risk Sci., 8: 182-195. DOI: 10.1007/s13753-017-0132-y.
  6. Asef, M. and Kasmati, M. (2006). Vulnerability of buildings to earthquakes. The Proceedings of International Conference on Earth Hazard, Natural Disasters and Strategies to Confrontation with It, Iran, Tabriz. (Persian)
  7. Asgari, A. (2004). Why crisis management? Municipals Monthly, 6(68). (Persian)
  8. Asgari, A. (2009). ISO 31000 International Risk Management Guide. Tehran: Noor Alam. (Persian)
  9. Aven, T. (2016). Risk assessment and risk management: review of recent advances on their foundation. European Journal of Operational Research, 0: 1-13. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.12.023.
  10. Bibiana Oluchukwu, N. (2012). Risk management in the Nigerian banking industry. Kuwait Chapter of Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review, 1(10): 100-109.
  11. Carlos, A.V. and Cynthia, N C. (1999). Guidelines for the implementation of earthquake risk management projects. California: Geohazards International Alo Alto.
  12. Chapman, D. (1999). Natural hazards. Second Edition. New York: Worldwide in Oxford.
  13. Cutter, S.L. (2015). The landscape of disaster resilience indicators in the United States. Natural Hazards, 80(2): 741-758.
  14. Darbak, T.A. and Hoatmer, J.J. (2004). Crisis management, principles and practical guidance of local governments. Translated by R. Pourkheradmand. Tehran: Urban Studies and Planning Center. (Persian)
  15. Dayyani, L., Pourtaheri, M., Rokneddin Eftekhari, A. and Ahmadi, H. (2019). Identification and zoning of the areas with rural deteriorated textures in Tehran province using KDE and GIS. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 25(1-2): 475-504. DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2018.1523675. (Persian)
  16. Delavar, M. and Kamalian, N. (2004). Investigating the position of spatial information systems in crisis management process, city construction. (Persian)
  17. Einali, J. (2010). Capacity building to reduce the effects of natural disasters (earthquake) in rural areas (case study: Khodabandeh County). PhD Thesis of Geography and Rural Planning. Faculty of Humanities, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran. (Persian)
  18. Faizian, S.M. and Schalcher, H.R. (2006). Consequence assessment in earthquake risk management using damage indicators. Switzerland: Federal Institute of Technology, ETH-Hönggerberg, CH-8093.
  19. FIG (2006). The contribution of the surveying profession to disaster risk management. FIG Working Group 8.4 International Federation of Surveyors (FIG). Available at www.fig.net.
  20. Ghafory-Ashtiany, M. (2005). Earthquake risk management strategies: the Iranian experience. Tehran: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES).
  21. Hansson, K., Danielson, M. and Ekenberg, L. (2008). Assessment of a Flood Management Formwork. International Journal of Public Information Systems, 1: 1-30.
  22. HFA(2005). Hyogo‌Framework‌for‌Action (HFA). World Conference on Disaster Reduction. Kobe, Hyogo, Japan.
  23. IDB (2000). Facing the challenge of natural disasters in Latin Am erican and the Caribbean: an IDB Action Plan. Washington, D.C.: Inter-Am erican Developm ent Bank (IDB).
  24. Ing, T.K. (2004). Links between land administration and risk management. Paper Presented at the FIG Seminar on E-Land Administration, Innsbruck, Austria.
  25. IRHF (2007). Vulnerability zoning map of Qazvin provinces to natural hazards (floods and earthquakes). Tehran: Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation (IRHF). (Persian)
  26. IRHF (2012). Economic Evaluation of Housing Financial Resources and Rural Constructions in Important Reconstructions of the Country (Case Study: Qeshm, Lorestan and Zarand). Tehran: Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation (IRHF), Deputy for Rural Reconstruction and Housing Affairs, Office Studies and Research. (Persian)
  27. Kegyes-Brassai, O. and Ray, R.P. (2016). Earthquake risk assessment: effect of a seismic event in a moderate seismic area. Acta Technica Jaurinensis, 9(1): 1-15. DOI: 10.14513/actatechjaur.v9.n1.383.
  28. OECD (2018). Financial management of earthquake risk. Available at www.oecd.org/finance/Financial-Management-of-Earthquake-Risk.htm.
  29. Ofoegbu, C. (2016). Assessing forest-based rural communities' adaptive capacity and coping strategies for climate variability and change: ihe case of Vhembe district in South Africa. Environmental Development, 18: 36-51.
  30. Olechowski, A., Oehmen, J., Seering, W. and Ben-Daya, M. (2013). Characteristics of successful risk management in product design. The Proceedings of the 12th International Design Conference- DESIGN 2012, Dubrovnik, Croatia.
  31. Oliveira, C. S., Roca, A. and Goula, X. (2006). Assessing and managing earthquake risk (Chapter 1). Netherlands: Springer.
  32. Parishan, M. (2011). Mitigation of natural hazard vulnerability (earthquake) using risk management approach (case study: rural area of Qazvin province). PhD Thesis of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Humanities, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran. (Persian)
  33. Prentice, H. (1999). Planning progress for community risk management. USA: Department of Disaster.
  34. Prior, W. (1999). What it means to be a “good citizen” in Australia: perceptions of teachers, students, and parents. Theory and Research in Social Education, 27(2): 215-247. DOI: 10.1080/00933104.1999.10505879.
  35. Rokneddin Eftekhari, A., Parishan, M., Pourtaheri, M. and Asgari, A. (2011). Measurement and evaluation of basic components of earthquake risk management (case study: rural areas of Qazvin County). Journal of Rural Research, 2(5): 115-150. (Persian)
  36. Sayers, P., Yuanyuan, L., Galloway, G., Penning-Rowsell, E., Fuxin, S., Kang, W., Yiwei, C. and Quesne, T.L. (2013). Flood risk management: a strategic approach. Paris: UNESCO.
  37. SCI (2011). General population and housing census: Qazvin, Buin Zahra, Takestan, Abyek, Alborz counties, November 2011. Tehran: Statistics Center of Iran (SCI). Available at https://www.amar.org.ir. Retrieved at 7 April, 2016. (Persian)
  38. SCI (2016). Detailed results of general population and housing census: rural areas of Qazvin province, November 2016. Tehran: Statistics Center of Iran (SCI). Available at https://www.amar.org.ir. Retrieved at 9 August, 2019. (Persian)
  39. Sharifi Sadeh, M. (2010). Disaster assessment. Journal of Rescue and Relief, 1(4): 1-7. (Persian)
  40. Stower, S. (1998). Measuring risk in a children's unit. International Journal of Health Care Quality Assurance Incorporating Leadership in Health Services, 11(6-7): 232-237.
  41. The Joint Commission (1998). Sentinel events, approaches to error reduction and prevention. Joint Commission Journal on Quality Improvement, 24(4): 175-178.
  42. Uckan, E., Durukal, E., Erdik, M., Sesetyan, K. and Demircioglu, M.B. (2006). Earthquake risk in industrial facilities and their mitigation. Paper Presented at the Second Conference of Crises Management in Iran, Iran.
  43. UNDP (2004). Reducing disaster risk: a challenge for development. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery. Available at www.undp.org/bcpr.
  44. UN ESCAP (2017). Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction for sustainable development: a guidebook for the Asia-Pacific. From Risk to Resilience Series, R2R series: A Product under the Enhancing Knowledge and Capacity to Manage Disaster Risk for a Resilient Future in Asia and the Pacific Project: United Nations Development Account, The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP).
  45. USAID (2014). Vulnerability assessment methodologies: a review of the literature. United States: United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Cooperative Agreement No. AID-OAA-LA-1300001.
  46. Vahdat, K., Smith, N.J. and Amiri, G. (2014). Seismic risk management: a system-based perspective. Risk Management, 16(4): 294-318. DOI: 10.1057/rm.2015.3.
  47. Wilson, J. and Tingle, J. (1997). Formulating a risk management strategy. British Journal of Nursing (BJN), 6(16): 924-925.
  48. World‌Bank (2013). Building Morocco’s resilience, inputs for an integrated risk management strategy. Washington D.C.: World Bank, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), Swiss Agency.
  49. Yari, A. and Parishan, M. (2017). Assessment of the role of education in natural hazards risk management (earthquake), the case study: rural areas of Qazvin County. Journal of Spatial Analysis of Environmental Risks, 4(1): 49-62. (Persian)
  50. Zaheri, M., Aghayari Hir, M. and Zakeri Miab, K. (2015). Vulnerability assessment of rural areas regarding earthquake risk (case study: the central district of Marand County). Journal of Research and Rural Planning, 4(9): 97-111. Available at http://jrrp.um.ac.ir/index.php/RRP/article/view/33713 (Persian)
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 1,154
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 594


counter
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. طراحی و پیاده سازی از سیناوب