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ملکوتی خواه, زهرا, فرج زاده, زکریا. (1399). اثر تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش افزوده کشاورزی ایران. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 28(3), 1-30. doi: 10.30490/aead.2020.305725.1093
زهرا ملکوتی خواه; زکریا فرج زاده. "اثر تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش افزوده کشاورزی ایران". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 28, 3, 1399, 1-30. doi: 10.30490/aead.2020.305725.1093
ملکوتی خواه, زهرا, فرج زاده, زکریا. (1399). 'اثر تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش افزوده کشاورزی ایران', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 28(3), pp. 1-30. doi: 10.30490/aead.2020.305725.1093
ملکوتی خواه, زهرا, فرج زاده, زکریا. اثر تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش افزوده کشاورزی ایران. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1399; 28(3): 1-30. doi: 10.30490/aead.2020.305725.1093

اثر تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش افزوده کشاورزی ایران

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
دوره 28، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 111، آذر 1399، صفحه 1-30    اصل مقاله (458.11 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2020.305725.1093
نویسندگان
زهرا ملکوتی خواه1؛ زکریا فرج زاده* 2
1دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
2استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
چکیده
در دهه­ های آینده، تغییر اقلیم به‏ ­ویژه بخش کشاورزی کشورهای در حال توسعه را با پیامدهای زیان ­بار مواجه خواهد کرد. با توجه به اهمیت این پیامدها، مطالعه حاضر با هدف تحلیل اثر متغیرهای اقلیمی بر ارزش افزوده بخش ­کشاورزی ایران صورت گرفت؛ و بدین منظور، از داده­ های پنل استانی برای دوره 1385 تا 1395 بهره گرفته شد. ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش افزوده با بهره‏ گیری از دو متغیر دما و بارندگی به انجام رسید و سایر متغیرهای مؤثر بر ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی شامل نیروی کار، سرمایة مادی (زمین، موجودی دام و موجودی تجهیزات آبیاری)، سرمایه انسانی به ­صورت تعداد دانش ­آموختگان، سرمایه اجتماعی به ‏صورت تعداد خط تلفن روستایی و شاخص تجارت بودند. تجارت با استفاده از دو متغیر سرمایه ­گذاری مستقیم خارجی و شاخص باز بودن تجارت لحاظ شد. بر اساس نتایج مطالعه، مشخص شد که به ‏طور عمد، نوسان‏ها یا اختلاف از میانگین متغیرهای دما و بارندگی بر تولید بخش­ کشاورزی اثر معنی ­دار دارد، به ‏گونه ‏ای که انتظار می­رود یک درجه افزایش دما نسبت به میانگین آن پنج درصد کاهش تولید را به ‏همراه داشته باشد؛ همچنین، یک درصد کاهش در بارندگی 3/0 درصد کاهش تولید را رقم خواهد زد. از میان متغیرهای سرمایه، سرمایه مادی به‏ عنوان مهم­ترین متغیر مساعدت‏ کننده به تولید شناخته شد. کشش تولید نسبت به سرمایه اجتماعی در سطحی بالاتر از سرمایه انسانی و در محدوده 18/0-17/0 ارزیابی شد. اثر سرمایه ‏گذاری خارجی فاقد اهمیت آماری بود، اما اثر منفی شاخص باز بودن در بخش کشاورزی احراز شد. با توجه به اثر منفی تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی، افزایش بهره ­وری استفاده از آب، یافتن ارقام با نیاز آبی پایین و سازگار با شرایط کم ­آبی و خشکسالی و کاهش ضایعات آب توصیه می­شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تغییر اقلیم؛ دما؛ بارندگی؛ سرمایه؛ بخش کشاورزی
عنوان مقاله [English]
Climate change impact on agriculture value added
نویسندگان [English]
Zahra Malakootikhah1؛ Zakariya Farajzadeh2
1MSc Student in Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, ,Iran
چکیده [English]
There are obvious evidences showing that climate change will affect adversely the agriculture sector especially those of the developing nations in coming decades. Regarding the climate change effects on the agriculture sector; this study aims to examine the impact of climatic variables on the Iranian agriculture value added. To get the study objective, provincial panel data over 2006-2016 was applied. Temperature and precipitation were applied to examine the effect climate change on agriculture value added. The remaining variables affecting agriculture value added are labor, physical capital including land, livestock and irrigation equipment, human capital measured as the number of the university graduated population, social capital represented by phone lines in rural area and trade index. Trade impact was also investigated using Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and trade openness variables. Based on the results, the climatic variables’ fluctuations or deviations from their average found to have more significant impact. One degree increase in temperature beyond its long term average is expected to induce a reduction of 5% in agriculture production while the corresponding value for 1% reduction in precipitation is 0.3%. Among the capital variables, physical capital has the highest contribution to agriculture production. Production elasticity with respect to social capital exceeds those of human capital, ranging from 0.17 to 0.18. FDI showed an insignificant effect; however, trade openness was found to affect adversely.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Climate change, Temperature, Precipitation, Capital, Agriculture sector
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