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ارزیابی کارایی مدل گردش عمومی CanESM2 و مدل منطقه ای REMO به منظور پیش بینی تغییرات ویژگی های اقلیمی در آبخیز جازموریان | ||
| پژوهش های آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 33، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 129، دی 1399، صفحه 61-76 اصل مقاله (1.37 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/wmej.2020.341365.1300 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| زهره ابراهیمی خوسفی* 1؛ مریم میراکبری2 | ||
| 1استادیار گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه جیرفت | ||
| 2دکترای تخصصی بیابانزدایی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| گرمشدن سیارهی زمین بهدلیل افزایش تغییر در بارندگی و دما بر دست‌رسی به منابع آب، بهویژه در منطقه‌های خشک، اثری جدی دارد. مدلهای اقلیمی گردش عمومی جو (GCM) و منطقهیی (RCM) ابزار اصلی ارزیابی تغییر ویژگیهای اقلیمی در آینده است. متفاوتبودن تفکیک مکانی این مدلها سبب اختلاف در نتیجه‌های ارزیابی تغییر ویژگیهای اقلیمی میشود. ازاینرو در این پژوهش کارآیی مدل بزرگ مقیاس CanESM2 و مدل منطقهیی REMO در آبخیز جازموریان با کاربرد معیارهای آماری ارزیابی شد. نتیجه‌ها نشان داد که مدل CanESM2 عمل‌کرد بهتری از مدل منطقهیی REMO برای پیشبینی ویژگیهای اقلیمی دارد. شبیهسازی ویژگیهای اقلیمی برپایه‌ی مدل CanESM2 نشان داد که بارندگی در حالت‌های ممکن RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 به ترتیب 19/23، 18/55 و 14/55 میلیمتر در ایستگاه ایرانشهر و در ایستگاه بم 8/31، 10/66 و 15/72 میلیمتر نسبت به دورهی مشاهده کاهش خواهد یافت. میانگین مقادیر شبیهسازی شده‌ی دما در حالت‌های ممکن پژوهش نشان داد که دمای متوسط در ایستگاه ایرانشهر به ترتیب 1/57، 2/15 و 3/1 درجهی سانتیگراد و در ایستگاه بم 1/84، 2/31 و 3/35 درجهی سانتیگراد نسبت به دورهی مشاهده افزایش خواهد یافت. به طورکلی نتیجه‌های پیشبینی ویژگیهای بارندگی و دمای متوسط در آبخیز جازموریان نشان داد که احتمال وقوع دورههای خشک طولانیتر در آینده نسبت به دورهی مشاهده در این منطقه افزایش خواهد یافت. ازاینرو اطلاع از روند تغییر ویژگیهای اقلیمی میتواند به مدیران و برنامهریزان در دادن راه‌کارهای لازم برای شرایط تغییر اقلیم آینده کمک کند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| جازموریان؛ روند تغییرات؛ من- کندال؛ مدل بزرگ مقیاس؛ مدل منطقه ای | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Performance Evaluation of the CanESM2 Global Circulation Model and the REMO Regional Model to Predict Changes of Climatic Parameters in the Jazmourian Watershed | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Zohre Ebrahimi Khusfi1؛ Maryam Mirakbari2 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Department of Natural Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Jiroft, Jiroft, Iran | ||
| 2PhD, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Global warming has a serious impact on access to water resources, especially in arid regions due to changes in rainfall and temperature. The Global Circulation Models (GCM) and the Regional Climate Models (RCM) have been considered as the main tools for assessing changes in climatic variables in the future. The difference in the spatial resolution of these models causes the different results in climate change assessment. The performance of the CanESM2 and REMO models was evaluated using statistical criteria in the Jazmourian Watershed. The results indicated that the CanESM2 has performed better than the REMO regional model for predicting climatic parameters. Climate parameter simulation based on the CanESM2 model showed that precipitation will decrease under the RCP scenarios (RCP2., RCP4.5, RCP8.5) by 19.23, 18.55, 14.55 mm, respectively at the Iranshahr Station and 8.31, 10.6, 15.72 mm, respectively at the Bam Station. The mean projected temperature based on the RCP scenarios showed that temperature will increase by 1.57, 2.15 and 3.1 ºC at the Iranshahr Station and 1.84, 2.31 and 3.35 ºC at Bam station under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Generally, the finding of simulated precipitation and temperature in the Jazmourian Watershed showed that the long dry periods is more likely to occur in the future as compared to the historical period. Hence, knowing the trend of the changes in climatic variables can help managers and planners to provide required strategies under the future climate change conditions. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Changes Trend, Jazmourian, Large-scale model, Mann- Kendall, Regional Model | ||
| مراجع | ||
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