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مدلسازی رویشگاه بالقوه گونه کما (Ferula ovina) در حال حاضر و سالهای آینده با استفاده از مدل افزایشی تعمیم یافته(مطالعه موردی: فریدونشهر اصفهان) | ||
| تحقیقات مرتع و بیابان ایران | ||
| مقاله 12، دوره 27، شماره 2، شهریور 1399، صفحه 321-333 اصل مقاله (908.12 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijrdr.2020.110429.1597 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مهسا قاضی مرادی* 1؛ عطاالله ابراهیمی2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری علوم مرتع، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهر کرد، ایران، | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه مرتع وآبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد،ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| ارزیابی رویشگاه بالقوه و مطالعه پراکنش جغرافیایی گونه‌ها یک موضوع کلیدی در بسیاری از مطالعات اکولوژیکی، حفاظت محیط زیست، حیات وحش و همچنین ارزیابی روند تغییرات در مقیاس‌های مختلف است. در این راستا، نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که در سالهای 2030 و 2080 به ازای ثابت ماندن تمامی فاکتورهای اقلیمی به غیر از میانگین درجه حرارت سالیانه احتمال باقی ماندن گونه کما افزایش یافته و به عبارت دیگر احتمال رخداد آن بیشتر می‌شود. میزان مساحت رویشگاه در طبقه‌ای که بیشترین احتمال حضور گونه وجود دارد در حال حاضر حدود 12970 هکتار در فریدونشهر اصفهان می‌باشد که در سال 2030 به حدود 3/27157 هکتار و در سال 2080 به حدود 9/31036 هکتار می‌رسد که این نشان دهنده این مطلب است که افزایش میزان میانگین درجه حرارت سالانه در سالهای 2030 و 2080 نسبت به حال حاضر اثر مثبتی بر حضور گونه در رویشگاههای مورد مطالعه خواهد داشت. زیرا طبق نتایج حاصل شده در منحنی‌های عکس العمل با افزایش درجه حرارت سالانه، احتمال حضور گونه کما افزایش می‌یابد. از نتایج این تحقیق می‌توان در جهت اصلاح و احیا پوشش گیاهی مناطق با شرایط مشابه استفاده کرد که یکی از دستاوردهای مهم این تحقیق است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| مدل پراکنش گونه ای؛ سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی؛ تغییر اقلیم | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Modeling of potential habitats of species ferula ovina for current and next years using generalized additive model(GAM) Fereidunshahr regional , in Isfahan province | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| mahsa ghazimoradi1؛ Attaollah ebrahimi2 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Student of Range Management, Faculty of Natural Resource and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resource and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Assessing the potential habitat and studying the geographical distribution of species is a key issue in many ecological studies, environmental protection, wildlife, and assessing the trend of changes at various scales. Therefore, in the present study, modeling of potential habitat of Ferula ovina in the present and future years was performed using a generalized incremental model in Fereydunshahr region. The results showed that in 2030 and 2080, in exchange for all climatic factors remaining constant, except the average annual temperature, the probability of surviving the Ferula species has increased; in other words, the probability of its occurrence increases. The habitat area in the class where the species is most likely to be present is currently about 12,970 hectares in Fereydunshahr, Isfahan, which in 2030 and 2080 will be reached about 27157.3 and 31036.9 hectares, respectively. This indicates that the increase in the average annual temperature in 2030 and 2080 compared to now will have a positive effect on the presence of the species in the habitats studied. Because according to the results obtained in response curves, by increasing annual temperature, the probability of the presence of Ferula species increases. The results of this research can be used to improve and rehabilitate the vegetation of areas with similar conditions, which is one of the important achievements of this research. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| species distribution modeling, GIS, climate change | ||
| مراجع | ||
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