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ارزیابی تغییرات مکانی و زمانی بارش و خشک‌سالی هواشناسی در ایستگاه‌های سینوپتیک ایران | ||
| پژوهش های آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 10، دوره 33، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 129، دی 1399، صفحه 123-141 اصل مقاله (2.89 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/wmej.2020.341216.1298 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| ایوب میرزایی حسنلو1؛ هیراد عبقری* 2؛ مهدی عرفانیان2؛ سپیده چوبه3 | ||
| 1دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران | ||
| 3دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تغییرپذیری شدید درون‌سالی و بین‌سالی بارندگی یکی از ویژگی‌های آب‌وهوایی ایران است. هدف از این پژوهش بررسی شاخص تمرکز بارندگی، فورنیهی اصلاح‌شده، شاخص شناسایی خشک‌سالی، و بارش بمعیار شده، و تهیه‌ی نقشهی تغییر مکانی و تحلیل روند آن‌ها در دوره‌ی زمانی30 ساله (2018-1989) در 30 ایستگاه هم‌دید (سینوپتیک) ایران است. داده‌ها از سازمان هواشناسی کشور تهیه شد. نتیجه‌ها نشان داد که شاخص PCI در50 % ایستگاه‌ها روند صعودی و در50 % روند نزولی داشت. کم‌ترین مقدار شاخص PCI در منطقه‌های شمالی در 1992 در ایستگاه رشت (9/22)، و بیش‌ترین آن در منطقه‌های جنوب‌شرقی در 2008 در ایستگاه بندرعباس (76/36) بود. شاخص MFI در 28 ایستگاه روند نزولی داشت، و کم‌ترین آن در 2010 در ایستگاه یزد (4/42)، و بیش‌ترین آن در سال 2001 در ایستگاه یاسوج (451/65) دیده شد. از نظر شاخص تمرکز بارندگی، الگوی بارندگی در بیش‌تر ایستگاه‌های هم‌دید ایران فصلی و کاملاً فصلی بود. شاخص‌های خشک‌سالی در منطقه‌های غربی از سایر ایستگاه‌ها بیش‌تر بود. شدید‌ترین مقدار خشک‌سالی براساس هر دو شاخص به ترتیب (3/4-) و (3/3-) در ایستگاه هم‌دید بوشهر و در 2010 رخ داد، که شاخص RDI خشک‌سالی را در وضعیت شدید‌تری نشان میدهد. شاخص RDI به‌جای شاخص SPI، برای پایش و مدیریت خشک‌سالی توصیه می‌شود تا اثر دما عامل مستقیم و اثرگزار بر خشک‌سالی باشد. نقشهی فرسایندگی بارندگی مبتنی بر فورنیه، منبع مهمی از اطلاعات است که می‌تواند کمک شایانی به آبخیزداران و کارشناسان منابع طبیعی در دادن طرح‌های حفاظت خاک، مهار کردن فرسایش، و مدیریت زمین کند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تحلیل روند؛ شاخص استاندارد شده بارش؛ شاخص تمرکز بارندگی؛ شاخص شناسائی خشک‌سالی؛ فورنیه اصلاح شده | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| An Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Changes in Precipitation and Drought in Iranian Synoptic Stations of Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ayub Mirzayi Hasanlo1؛ Hirad Abghari2؛ Mehdi Erfanian2؛ Sepideh Choobe3 | ||
| 1Graduated from Master of Science, Department of Range and Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran | ||
| 3Ph.D, Candidate, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The temporal and spatial variability of rainfall within and between years is a characteristic of Iran's climate. The aim of this study was to investigate the PCI, SPI, RDI, and MFI indices and map their spatial variations. These data were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of Iran. The results indicated that the PCI index had an upward trend in 50% of the stations and a downward trend in the remaining stations. The lowest value of the PCI index was observed for the northern regions in 1992 at the Rasht Station (9.22), and the highest value for southeastern regions in 2008 at the Bandar Abbas Station (76.36). The MFI index had a downward trend of 28 stations with the lowest value of the MFI index in 2010 at the Yazd Station (4.42) and the highest value in 2001 at the Yasuj Station (451.65). According to the PCI index, the rainfall pattern at most of Iran's synoptic stations is seasonal and completely seasonal. The results of drought indices indicated that the SPI and RDI indices were higher in the western regions than in the other regions. The severest drought based on both indices was observed at the Bushehr Synoptic Station in 2010. The values of these indices were (-3.4) and (-3.3), respectively. The results also indicated that the RDI index revealed more severe drought conditions. As the RDI index includes air temperature as a direct factor affecting drought, it is recommended to replace the SPI index with this one. The Fornieh Rain Erosion Map may be of great help to watershed managers and natural resource experts in planning soil conservation, erosion control, and land use schemes. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Modified fournier index, precipitation concentration index, reconnaissance drought index, standardized precipitation index, trend analysis | ||
| مراجع | ||
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