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اثر تغییرات اقلیمی بر تولید بخش کشاورزی ایران: مطالعه موردی محصول گندم | ||
| پژوهش های کاربردی زراعی | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 32، شماره 04 - شماره پیاپی 125، اسفند 1398، صفحه 109-127 اصل مقاله (640.2 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/aj.2019.123143.1337 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سروش کیانی* 1؛ جواد شهرکی2؛ احمد اکبری3؛ علی سردارشهرکی4 | ||
| 1دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، دانشکده علوم زیست محیطی و کشاورزی و پایدار | ||
| 2دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان | ||
| 3استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان | ||
| 4استادیار اقتصاد کشارزی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان | ||
| چکیده | ||
| کشاورزی یکی از مهم‌ترین بخش‌های اقتصاد ایران بوده که باتوجه به تداوم تغییرات اقلیم و موقعیت جغرافیای خشک و نیمه خشک ایران اثرات منفی بسیاری از این تغییرات دیده و می‌تواند به خود ببیند. در این پژوهش با تفکیک اثرات مختلف تغییر اقلیم و در نظر گرفتن چهار سناریو به ترتیب شامل تغییر نرمال اقلیم، تغییر اقلیم، تغییرپذیری اقلیم و تغییر توامان اقلیم و تغییر پذیری اقلیم به بررسی اثرات هر یک بر میزان بارندگی و در ادامه بر سطح زیر کشت، میزان درآمد و قیمت محصول گندم به عنوان مهم‌ترین محصول زراعی ایران پرداخته شده است. از این رو با بکارگیری روش برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت و با استفاده از اطلاعات آب و هوایی ایران و همچنین داده‌های مربوط به هزینه و تولید گندم طی سال‌های 1394-1379 روند 20 ساله موارد فوق بررسی شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که در شرایط تغییر توامان اقلیم و تغییر اقلیم به نسبت دو شرایط دیگر کاهش شدیدتری در بارندگی رخ خواهد داد. همچنین در این دو شرایط اقلیمی کاهش در سطح زیر کشت، کاهش در درآمد و افزایش قیمت شدیدتر از دو شرایط دیگر خواهد بود. متوسط سطح زیرکشت گندم به صورت سالانه به ترتیب 15/2467، 89/1994، 23/2473 و 59/1993 هزار هکتار، متوسط درآمد سالانه کشاورزان گندم ایران نیز به ترتیب 4/13247، 59/10711، 07/13280 و 61/10704 میلیارد تومان و متوسط قیمت هر تن گندم در سال 79/14، 85/17، 77/14 و 87/17 میلیون تومان خواهد بود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییر پذیری اقلیم؛ درآمد؛ برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت؛ محصولات زراعی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Effect of Climate Change on Iran's Agricultural Production: A Case Study of Wheat Crop | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Sroush Kiani1؛ Javad Shahraki2؛ Ahmad Akbari3؛ Ali Sardar Shahraki4 | ||
| 1University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Sustainable Agriculture | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan | ||
| 3Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan | ||
| 4Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction Climate change, with less access to water, results in product yields, and as a result of declining production, the economic consequences are affected by these changes, and the farmer experiences a reduction in income resulting from a decline in his performance (Gohar & Kashman, 2016) . Iran's presence in the dry and semi-arid belt of the world has always been caused by dehydration and alternate droughts. Climate change, with a decline in access to water, yields products, and as a result of declining production, the economic consequences are affected by these changes and the farmer experiences a decline in income resulting from a decline in his performance. Wheat is one of the products affected by these changes. In Iran, this product is considered to be the most important and most cultivated crop. In the 2012-2015 crop year, the level of wheat cultivation in Iran was 5928728 hectares and its production was 14592003 tons. It is a statistic that indicates both the level of cropping and the production of this product in a high level and volume. This product is 50.39% of the total cultivation and 17.58% of total crop production in the mentioned crop year (Agricultural Statistics, 2017). Materials and Methods Using a positive mathematical programming as well as information on the wheat crop during the years 1339-1394, the trend of cultivars, incomes and prices of wheat climatic assumptions over 20 years is discussed. This goal was pursued using GAMS software in the present study. CROPWAT software was used to calculate the need for water in the cost and product sector. The method of pmp was first introduced by Hawait. As the most commonly used method for calibration, a mathematical programming model is performed in three steps. In the first step, the linear programming model is determined by considering the calibration limitations, and in the second stage, with the help of the dual values of the previous stage model, a nonlinear objective function is formed. In the third step, the calibrated target function is used as a nonlinear programming model for policy analysis (Moghadasi & Bakhshi, 2014). Climate scenarios in this study will be achieved with regard to climate variability and change in average annual rainfall. Research scenarios include: normal climate change, climate change, climate Variability, and Double Exposure. Results & Discussion Climate change can be mentioned as an unavoidable phenomenon around the world, which is unlikely to be much more severe in Iran due to its particular geography and dry and semi-arid climate. In the meantime, the agricultural sector has been and will be more vulnerable to these natural changes due to the strong dependence on natural phenomena. Following the variability of this part of the climate change, agricultural production is affected first and foremost. In fact, climate change will change the price of products and income of farmers by changing production levels. In this study, the effects of climate change on agricultural production have been evaluated to study the effect of four different climate scenarios on rainfall, cropping area, yield and price of wheat products as one of the most important agricultural products in Iran. The results show that among the four scenarios studied, climate change and climate change scenarios have more severely affected the studied cases. The first issue is the effect of different scenarios on rainfall, which results in a significant reduction in precipitation over a period of 20 years. This would be to a degree where the average rainfall in both the climate change and climate change will decrease by an average of 50% annually, as compared to two other situations. Under these two scenarios (climate change and climate change), cropping levels and income levels will fall further than the other two scenarios. In these two scenarios, wheat prices will be higher than other scenarios. Based on the results of this study, the continuation of climate change and the lack of appropriate policies to confront and adapt to these changes will be unavoidable. Reducing income and rising prices will lead to a reduction in the welfare of producers and consumers. Key words: Climate change, Climate variability, Wheat production, Iran. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Climate Variability, Income, Positive Math Planning, Crops | ||
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