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پیش‌بینی و آشکارسازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی با استفاده از مدل CA مارکوف و LCM در آبخیز کوزه‌تپراقی استان اردبیل | ||
| پژوهش های آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 33، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 128، مهر 1399، صفحه 91-107 اصل مقاله (1.6 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/wmej.2019.128009.1267 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مریم آقائی1؛ حسن خاوریان2؛ رئوف مصطفی‌زاده* 3 | ||
| 1دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد سنجش از دور و GIS، دانشکده‌ی ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی | ||
| 2استادیار گروه آموزشی جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی | ||
| 3دانشیار گروه آموزشی منابع طبیعی و عضو پژهشکده‌ی مدیریت آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی | ||
| چکیده | ||
| شبیه‌سازی و نظارت بر روند آینده‌ی تغییر کاربری زمین یکی از چالش‌های مهم برای محققان و تصمیم‌گیرندگان است. این پژوهش با داده‌ها و مدل‌های زمانی-مکانی به شبیه‌سازی و ارزیابی روند آینده‌ی تغییر کاربری زمین در آبخیز کوزه‌تپراقی در استان اردبیل پرداخته است. از 3 تصویر ماهواره‌یی لندست ETM+ (2000)، TM (2010) و OLI (2018) بهره گرفته شد. برای شبیه‌سازی نقشهی تغییر کاربری زمین در سال 2036 مدل CA مارکوف، و برای بررسی روند آینده‌ی کاربری زمین مدل‌ساز تغییر سرزمین LCM به‌کار برده شد. برای بررسی صحت مدل CA مارکوف، نقشهی تغییر پیش‌بینی‌شده‌ی سال 2018 با نقشهی طبقه‌بندی 2018 صحت‌سنجی شد و براساس ضریب کاپا دقت زیاد 0/8 مدل در پیش‌بینی تغییر به‌دست آمد. برای تحلیل و آشکارسازی تغییر کاربری زمین سال 2000 تا 2036 و شناخت روند تغییر کاربری‌ها مدل‌ساز تغییر سرزمین به‌کار برده شد. نتیجه نشان‌دهنده‌ی این است که سطح کاربری‌های کشاورزی آبی 80/52 %، مرتع 36/90 و زمین درختی 5/76 % در آبخیز کوزه‌تپراقی افزایش خواهد یافت، و از سطح کاربری‌های کشاورزی دیم به‌اندازه‌ی 43/43 % و سطح آب به‌اندازه‌ی 91/40 % کاسته خواهد شد. تغییر عمده‌ی کاربری کشاورزی دیم در بخش‌های مرکزی آبخیز، زمین درختی در بخش جنوب غربی، مرتع در قسمت جنوب غربی و کشاورزی آبی در زیرحوزه‌های پایین‌دست آبخیز کوزه‌تپراقی است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییر کاربری اراضی؛ روند تغییرات؛ صحت‌سنجی؛ مدل زمانی-مکانی؛ نقشه تغییرات | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Prediction of Land Use Changes Using the CA-Markov and LCM Models in the Kozehtopraghi Watershed in the Province of Ardabil | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Maryam Aghaei1؛ Hasan Khavarian2؛ Raoof Mostafazadeh3 | ||
| 1M.Sc. Graduated in Remote Sensing and GIS, Department of Literature and Humanities, Faculty of Natural Geography, Mohaghegh Ardabili University, Ardabil, Iran | ||
| 2Assistant Professor, Department of Literature and Humanities, Faculty of Natural Geography, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Department of Natural Resources and Member of Water Management Research Institute, Faculty of Agricultural Technology and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Simulation and monitoring of future trends of land use changes is an important challenge for researchers and decision makers. This study uses the spatio-temporal models to simulate and evaluate the future trend in land use changes of the Kozehtopraghi Watershed in the Province of Ardabil. Landsat ETM+ (2000), TM (2010) and OLI (2018) images were used. The CA-Markov model was used to simulate land use changes in the future period (the year 2036). To assess the validity of a CA-Markov model, the predicted land use map of 2018 was compared with the classified map of 2018. Based on the Kappa accuracy coefficient with the value of 0.8, the accuracy of the simulated results was acceptable. The land use map of 2036 has been predicted using the CA-Markov model. In order to analyze and detect the changes in 2000 to 2036, the LCM model was employed. The results showed that the areas of irrigated farming, pastures and orchards will increase by 80.52, 36.90, and 5.76 percent, respectively. On the other hand, the rainfed agriculture and water bodies areas will decrease by 43.43 and 91.40 percent, respectively. In addition, based on the results of the change process, extreme changes in rainfed agriculture, orchard, pasture and irrigated agriculture will happen in the central, south-west, south-west and downstream parts of the Kozehtopraghi Watershed. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Changes map, change trends, Land use change, spatio-temporal model, validation | ||
| مراجع | ||
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