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برآورد دماهای کاردینال ارشته خطایی(Lepyrodiclis holosteoides) با استفاده از مدل‌های رگرسیونی | ||
| علوم و فناوری بذر ایران | ||
| مقاله 9، دوره 6، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 12، پاییز و زمستان 1396، صفحه 107-117 اصل مقاله (692 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/ijsst.2018.116531 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
رضا دیهیم فرد1؛ شهرام نظری  2؛ یاسین قرآنی3
| ||
| 1استادیار/ گروه کشاورزی اکولوژیک، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری/گروه اکواوژی گیاهان زراعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران | ||
| 3دانشجو/گروه کشاورزی اکولوژیک، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| به منظور ارزیابی برخی مدل‌های رگرسیونی غیرخطی برای تخمین دماهای کاردینال جوانه‌زنی بذر علف هرز مهاجم ارشته خطایی(Lepyrodiclis holosteoides)، پژوهشی در آزمایشگاه تنوع زیستی پژوهشکده علوم محیطی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی اجرا شد. در این آزمایش بذور تحت تأثیر هشت تیمار دمایی (صفر، 5، 10، 15، 20، 25، 30 و 35 درجه سانتی‌گراد) و پتانسیل رطوبت ( 0، 0.2-، 0.4-، 0.6- و 0.8- بار) در چهار تکرار قرار گرفتند و درصد و سرعت جوانه‌زنی بذور محاسبه شدند. برای بررسی و پیش‌بینی سرعت جوانه‌زنی نسبت به دما از مدل‌های دندان مانند، دو تکه‌ای و بتا 4 و 5 پارامتری استفاده گردید. به منظور ارزیابی و تعیین نکویی برازش مدل‌های مختلف جوانه‌زنی از برآوردگرهای آماری شامل ریشه دوم میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE)، شاخص آکائیک (AIC) و ضریب تبیین (R2) استفاده شد. بالاترین درصد جوانه‌زنی در دمای 20 درجه سانتی‌گراد با 72 درصد بدست آمد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل‌های 4 و 5 پارامتره بتا در مقایسه با دیگر مدل‌ها، توانست توصیف بهتری را از واکنش سرعت جوانه‌زنی ارشته خطایی نسبت به دما ارائه کنند که دلیل آن R2 بالاتر (برای هر دو مدل 0.99) و AIC (73.16- و 73.27-) و RMSE (0.0092 و 0.0091) پایین‌تر در این مدل‌ها بود. بطور کلی دماهای پایه، بهینه و حداکثر ارشته خطایی به ترتیب 4.29، 19.76 و 37.55 درجه سانتی‌گراد با مدل 4 پارامتره بتا و 4.22، 19.72 و 37.83 درجه سانتی‌گراد با مدل 5 پارامتره بتا تخمین زده شد. یافته های به دست آمده این تحقیق می‌تواند در پیش‌بینی جوانه‌زنی ارشته خطایی در شرایط دمایی مختلف استفاده شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه ها | ||
| سرعت جوانه‌زنی؛ علف هرز؛ مدل بتا؛ مدل دوتکه‌ای | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Estimation of cardinal temperatures of Lepyrodiclis holosteoides using regression models | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| R. Deihimfard1؛ Sh. Nazari2؛ Y. Qorani3 | ||
| 1Assistant Prof./Dept. of Agroecoloy, Institute of Environmental Sciences Research , Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 2PhD Student in agronomy/ Buali Sina University, Hamdan. Iran, | ||
| 3Student/Department of Agroecoloy, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In order to evaluate different nonlinear regression models for estimating cardinal temperatures of Lepyrodiclis holosteoides as an invasive weed, an experiment was carried out at Biodiversity Laboratory of Environmental Sciences Research Institute at Shahid Beheshti University. 8 germination temperatures (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 °C) and humidity potential (0, -0.2, -0.4, -0.6 and -0.8 MPa) with four replications. Were arranged in a completely randomized design with for replications. Then, germination rate and percentage of seeds were measured. To predict the response of germination rate to temperature in Lepyrodiclis holosteoides, some regression models including dent-like, segmented, beta (four and five parameters) were applied. Some statistical estimators like Root Mean Squared of Error (RMSE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used to evaluate goodness of fit for different regression models. Results showed that the highest germination percentage (72%) was obtained at 20 °C. Results also indicated that beta four and five-parameter models were amongst the superior functions in describing the response of germination rate to temperature in Lepyrodiclis holosteoides largely due to their higher R2 (0.99 for both beta models), lower AIC (-73.16 and -73.27) and RMSE (0.0092 and 0.0091). Generally, base, optimum and ceiling cardinal temperatures for Lepyrodiclis holosteoides were estimated 4.29, 19.76 and 37.55 °C for beta four-parameter models and 4.22, 19.72 and 37.83 °C for beta five-parameter model. The findings of the current study (i.e. cardinal temperatures) could be used in prediction of Lepyrodiclis holosteoides germination and emergenceunder various temperatures. | ||
| کلیدواژه ها [English] | ||
| Germination rate, weed, Beta model, Segmented function | ||
| مراجع | ||
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